Scientific data showed that the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) and increase in health system capacity helped prevent the spread of Covid-19.
“If there is no ECQ, Covid-19 cases will spread fast and it will have a high peak,” said Dr. Ma. Regina Justina E. Estuar, project leader of Fassster, or the Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler for Early Detection of Diseases, at a recent virtual news conference.
Data from Fassster were the bases of the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) in recommending to Malacañang the possible actions to control the coronavirus pandemic in the country.
President Duterte placed Luzon under ECQ until April 30, from the original April 14, owing to the increasing incidence of Covid-19 infections.
On Friday Malacañang ordered the extension of ECQ in selected areas, including Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, and other high-risk provinces in Luzon until May 15.
A general community quarantine (GCQ) will be enforced in low-risk and moderate-risk areas for the same period.
As of Friday, the country has a total of recorded 6,981 cases of Covid-19, with 722 recoveries and 462 fatalities.
However, besides ECQ, Estuar also emphasized the importance of the country’s health system capacity in controlling the increase in the number of Covid-19 cases.
She showed a Fassster dashboard that indicated that “if ECQ was not declared, the number of confirmed cases would reach up to 2 million on June 21” in the National Capital Region alone.
“Because of ECQ, with the limited movement of people, and the increase in health system capacity, the projection of confirmed Covid-19 cases slowed down to half a million,” Estuar said in Filipino.
Showing another dashboard, Estuar said if ECQ will be lifted on April 30—and if the health system capacity is raised to 40 percent—the confirmed cases will be 12,000 only.
“It will show a relatively flat curve,” she explained.
“The base graph will have a lower number of confirmed cases if the health system capacity is at 40 percent or more,” Estuar, an Ateneo de Manila University professor, said.
Being a tool in decision-making, Estuar explained that the basis of Fassster analysis are data gathered from ECQ and the country’s health system capacity, including testing.
Data on ECQ include measures on the limited movement of people, social distancing and people’s observance of proper hygiene.
The health systems and testing capacity data involve the number of available testing kits, testing centers, trained personnel in handling testing, the number of polymerase chain reaction machines, laboratories, hospital beds and personal protective equipment for frontliners, among others.
With these sources of data, Estuar noted that there are many scenarios included in Fassster computation.
“That is the important contribution of Fassster. We don’t just say ‘We should lift ECQ, and here is the data.’ We say, ‘We lift the ECQ and we have a health capacity of 10 percent, 20 percent or 30 percent.’ These are the big concerns in the increase or lowering of projection. We consider various scenarios and cases,” she emphasized.
The data are gathered daily from the Department of Health Epidemiology Bureau and undergo data cleaning, where they are verified and validated, said Dr. Raymond Sarmiento of Fassster said in another virtual news conference.
Science Undersecretary Rowena Cristina Guevara agreed that based on Fassster model, the peak of possible Covid-19 cases is decreasing.
“Before, our testing capacity is low, so the peak is high,” she said.
Guevara noted that since Fassster started working on Covid-19 early this year, it has “registered 96 percent to 98 percent accuracy.”
“So one could trust its data,” Guevara told the BusinessMirror in a phone interview in mixed Filipino.
Science Secretary Fortunato de la Peña said Health Secretary Francisco Duque were “impressed” with the performance of the Fassster model and “praised” it.
The trend points to the lowering of the number of deaths and the increasing number of recovering patients, de la Peña told the BusinessMirror in a phone interview.
De la Peña agreed that “the testing capacity—including the ability to have those [Covid-19] infected tested and the ability of the health-care system, the facilities, [the number and capacity of] health-care workers—have big a factor” in the lowering number of infected cases.
Fassster was established in 2016 as an instrument in recording, monitor and assess the cases of illnesses that could become an epidemic or pandemic. Its original targeted diseases are dengue, typhoid fever and measles.
The 30-man team is funded by Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Council for Health Research and Development with P19 million for five years.
Estuar said she feels Fassster “is here to stay,” especially now that the local government units and other stakeholders have realized the importance of developing “good science” in disease projection.
Image credits: CNNPhilippines