GLOBAL business disruptions and the economic slowdown caused by the novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19) are now expected to cost around 200 million workers their jobs, based on latest estimates of the International Labour Organization (ILO). The new figure is eight times more than the ILO’s initial estimates when the pandemic was just starting to spread.
This has led the labor arm of the United Nations to tag the pandemic disease as the worst global crisis since World War II in terms of employment losses.
In its second monitoring report on the impact of Covid-19 on the world of work, ILO issued a bleaker forecast for workers this year, saying the pandemic could cause “catastrophic” displacement of 195 million full-time employees, mostly in the accommodation and food services, manufacturing, retail, and business and administrative activities.
The Asia and the Pacific region is expected to suffer the biggest job losses at 125 million full-time workers. It was followed by Europe with 12 million and the Arab states with 5 million.
“Workers and businesses are facing catastrophe, in both developed and developing economies,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said in a statement.
Initial estimate
In its initial report last month, ILO estimated the business effects of Covid-19 to spell the retrenchment of only around 25 million workers.
The revision—the eight-fold rise in estimates—came after ILO made use of the “nowcasting” model which relies on real-time economic and labor market data to predict loss in working hours in the second quarter.
Currently, ILO said the Covid pandemic has forced the employers of 81 percent of the world’s 3.3 billion workforce to undergo full or partial closure.
The impact of Covid, ILO noted, is worse for the 2 billion workers in the informal sector, where “a sudden loss of income is devastating.”
In the Philippines, the government expects the crisis will affect 1.8 million workers.
ILO is now pushing for a united international response to the Covid-19 crisis by creating the necessary fiscal and monetary policy; providing employment retention policies for companies and social protection for workers; implementing the necessary work arrangements during the Covid crisis and stopping discrimination against those affected by disease; and fostering social dialogue during crisis.
ILO said the interventions should focused on the “hardest hit” sectors to ensure “conditions for a prompt, job-rich recovery once the pandemic is under control.
This, Ryder said, is the greatest test for international cooperation in more than 75 years. “If one country fails, then we all fail.”
Moving “fast, decisively and together” is imperative, he said. “The right, urgent measures could make the difference between survival and collapse.”
Image credits: Bernard Testa