Surreal. The past few weeks have seen the world as we know it turned upside down. The usual hustle and bustle, crowded and noisy bodies and moving machines traversing the busiest of thoroughfares around the globe have been effectively silenced.
It suddenly dawned on me that what Microsoft Corp. cofounder and board member Bill Gates predicted in a speech before a TED Talks in 2015 is now unfolding in our very eyes.
In that talk, Gates told his audience that the disaster we should worry about most is not a nuclear war, but a global catastrophe from microbes: “If anything kills 10 million people over the next few decades,” he said, “it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”
Gates pointed out the irony is that so much money has been invested in nuclear deterrents, but very little in a system to stop an epidemic. He boldly predicted then that the world would not be ready for the next microbe contagion.
His speech was exactly the year after the world avoided a global outbreak of Ebola, which he credited to thousands of selfless health workers—“plus, frankly, some very good luck.” In hindsight, we now know what we should have done better. Gates suggested “to put all our good ideas into practice, from scenario planning to vaccine research to health worker training. There’s no need to panic…but we need to get going.”
True enough, the World Health Organization (WHO) in April 2015 acknowledged flaws in its response to the crisis, saying it would not necessarily be prepared for what comes next. The outbreak, it said, “served as a reminder that the world, including WHO, is ill-prepared for a large and sustained disease outbreak.”
Across the globe, people have not yet fully come to grips with the Covid-19 pandemic, even as the stench of burnt flesh now permeates the air of China and Italy. The frequency by which dead bodies are being cremated in those countries remains unprecedented.
In the Philippines, we are only starting to cope with the wrath of this deadly virus, and the way it is coercing us to keep a safe distance from one another. In Italy, Covid-19 patients die solitary deaths, bereft of spending their last moments on Earth with their loved ones. Even the anguish of their loved ones cannot find solace in the sympathetic presence or the warmth of a hug from family members and friends. In Italy, comforting a loved one who has just lost a family member has to be done via telephone or social-media platforms. Totally heartbreaking!
As of March 18, 2020, there have been 198,422 confirmed Covid-19 cases and 7,987 deaths globally. Here, the Department of Health on March 17 confirmed two new Covid-19 deaths, bringing the total number of fatalities in the country to 14. On Wednesday this week, the DOH recorded 193 cases with seven persons recovering from the illness. Some experts believe that Covid-19 cases in the country could reach 26,000 by end-March if random spread is not contained—a number that our health-care system cannot simply handle.
With still no vaccines in sight and with the exponential speed by which the virus is spreading, experts believe that more people would be infected. So far, the best worldwide response is locking down areas: shutting down schools, offices, malls and public places; banning mass gatherings; and encouraging or requiring people to go into home quarantine to deprive the virus of a host where it can thrive.
On Monday, President Duterte placed the entire Philippines under a state of calamity for six months “unless earlier lifted or extended as circumstances may warrant.” The declaration will allow local government units (LGUs) to access quick response funds during emergency situations.
I support and believe that it is only in a total lockdown where our health authorities can contain the virus, unlike the community quarantine imposed in Metro Manila earlier, which caused a lot of confusion and frayed nerves. The administration has obviously contributed to the anxiety arising from the community quarantine with the President’s failure to calm the apprehension of the people through his usual rambling, and forgettable speeches.
But at stake here is how to slow down, if not completely halt, the virus spread. We have not been blessed with brilliant, caring, and effective leaders, so it is totally understandable if some people view the government’s plans of action with skepticism, and refuse to entrust their lives to someone who resembles a Pied Piper. I still believe, however, that there are still dedicated, selfless and rational health and peace and order professionals who would see us through in this time of crisis.
Our way of life has been rudely interrupted, but it is up to each of us to do our share in bringing it back to normal. During these chaotic and dangerous times, survival depends on how we remain calm, sensible and considerate of each other’s health and safety.
For comments and suggestions, e-mail me at mvala.v@gmail.com