The Department of Health has confirmed on Thursday the first case of the 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV) in the Philippines. There’s no question that the global situation is going to get worse, based on information over the last two days.
One story out of Japan is absolutely frightening, and that is not an exaggeration or “over-acting.” From NHK World-Japan: “Japan’s health minister Katsunobu Kato has announced that two more people have been confirmed infected with the new coronavirus in Japan.” That is not a surprise. However, what follows is disturbing: “Kato said that the person is the first to be confirmed infected despite having no record of staying in Wuhan. Kato also said the person is a bus driver in Nara Prefecture who drove for tourists from Wuhan twice in January.”
The immediate question is how many other passengers on his tour bus may have been exposed after he became contagious and before he began showing symptoms? Further, how many of the tour passengers from China who were not infected might have been infected by the same person that caused the bus driver to become ill? The time frame given by the health minister—in January—is also very worrisome. That means that the infected person from China might have been infecting people for some time before the bus driver got the virus.
From Bloomberg: “The case of a 10-year-old boy who was diagnosed with the Wuhan coronavirus even though he showed no symptoms is raising concern that people may be spreading the virus undetected by the front-line screening methods implemented to contain the epidemic.” The boy’s family recently visited Wuhan. His parents and grandparents became ill after they returned home. But the boy was only diagnosed with the virus when his parents insisted he will be tested although he showed no symptoms.
As of now, Thailand has recorded the most confirmed cases outside of China at 14. Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said there are too many Chinese tourists, with at least 22,000 people from Wuhan, that visited Thailand in January. “Thailand is not able to stop the spread of the deadly Wuhan coronavirus that was imported from China.”
As of Wednesday, some 6,000 cases have been confirmed in China, The 2002/2003 SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak infected 8,096 people. The nCoV appears to be much less fatal but much more contagious. The economic effects are going to be widespread.
Toyota is closing its China factories until at least February 9. Starbucks closed more than half of its stores across China. Gambling center Macau is described as a “ghost town.” Sixteen major airlines including British Airways, Air Canada, Air India, American Airlines, and Lufthansa have canceled all services to and from China.
While all major tourist attractions have been closed in China, reports out of Europe are that even there tourism has fallen dramatically.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said after its latest policy meeting: “That scenario is now complicated by the emergence of the virus.” He was speaking about the US-China trade deal, and suggestions that the global economy might be picking up this year.
Naturally, the primary concern is that all Filipinos stay safe and healthy. But the reality with the nCoV is that the worst is yet to come.
Image credits: Jimbo Albano