Our state volcanologists should be commended for their sound scientific literacy on Taal Volcano’s eruptions and their efforts to communicate regular updates of volcanic activities, which help government agencies respond to the needs of impacted communities.
They should not be made to face a congressional inquiry as Cavite Rep. Elpidio Barzaga Jr. had suggested.
What would a congressional investigation accomplish? How exactly would it help ease the crisis at this time?
As Sen. Panfilo Lacson rightly said: “The mere fact that nobody was reported to have died, I think we should not blame Phivolcs and just allow them to do their job. This is not the time to blame people. The situation is still there. We don’t know what else will happen. And quite regularly they are giving updates. So I think it’s a bit premature if we start blaming them now.”
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) chief Renato Solidum, Mariton Bornas and other state volcanologists were not sleeping on the job, as Barzaga implied. On the contrary, they have been working around the clock in coordination with government authorities, hardly sleeping at all, since Taal showed signs of heightened volcanic activity.
Even if the science of volcanic eruption forecasting has come a long way in recent decades and despite a wide range of measurements available to volcanologists today, accurately predicting volcanic eruptions and trying to communicate it with certainty remains fraught with difficulties.
Just last December, New Zealand’s White Island volcano had a massive eruption that killed at least six people and injured some 30 more, surprising the people and tourists in and near the island, despite constant monitoring of the volcano by state scientists.
On the other hand, Ecuador’s Cotopaxi Volcano and Indonesia’s Mount Agung have shown warning signs of impending eruptions and, yet, said eruptions happened much later than expected.
These are just a few examples showing the highly unpredictable nature of volcanoes.
Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian, in defending Phivolcs during a recent Kapihan sa Senado forum, said: “In due fairness to Phivolcs, I haven’t seen any agency in the world that can predict a volcanic eruption. There is no technology, no system or software, that can accurately predict a volcanic eruption. Phivolcs did their best to issue warnings.”
Phivolcs had issued a news bulletin placing Taal Volcano under Alert Level 1 in March 2019. It has been constantly monitoring volcanic activity in Taal and even informed media about a high number of volcanic-induced tremors in December.
Phivolcs first hoisted Alert Level 2 over Taal Volcano on January 12, which climbed to Alert Level 4 after the volcano showed increased activity. Each time there was a significant change in the behavior of the volcano, Phivolcs had issued a news bulletin and informed the public through its social-media accounts, its web site and by making its scientists available for media interviews.
Gatchalian said it is the job of citizens to heed the warnings issued by the agency and the job of local government units to be prepared in times of disaster and natural calamities.
He noted how some local officials allowed people to inhabit the danger zones or hazardous areas near the volcano. “Moving forward, we should now stop constituents from going there and living in that area as part of disaster mitigation,” he said.
Even President Duterte said he too is satisfied with the work of the state volcanologists. And more than a few Filipinos took to social media to defend them and shield Phivolcs from criticism.
We are sure that if Phivolcs had preemptively announced an imminent eruption and one did not take place, Barzaga and fellow critics of the state-run monitoring agency would be calling for heads to roll just the same.
Volcanic eruptions are a double-edged sword that often create a decision-making dilemma, one best responded to by drills, mitigation efforts and preparedness. This is a shared responsibility for government, the private sector, communities and individuals, not just scientific experts. But yes, indeed, experts with education, knowledge and experience must lead the handling of the crisis, not politicians who merely wish to score points by playing the blame game, thereby making a crisis worse.
Rather than focus on blame, we all need to improve our disaster management policies, and develop practical strategies and resources to build resilience and limit the impact of disasters on communities.
Image credits: Jimbo Albano