THE government and the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP), the umbrella organization of so-called democratic forces in the country, agreed on a temporary cessation of armed hostilities toward the end of last year.
The holiday season cease-fire was apparently taken to pave the way, for the nth time, for the possible revival of the on-and-off peace negotiations in what was seen as yet another attempt by President Duterte to strike a peace deal with communist-inspired “political recidivists.”
The decision of the Commander in Chief to take the course toward restarting the talks surprised many officials, especially hawks in the defense-military establishment, given the repeated assertion that the government’s anti-insurgency campaign was going well.
However, according to Palace spokesman Salvador Panelo, the President had wanted to give the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and its armed wing, the New People’s Army (NPA), another chance at peace, probably his last offer in his remaining two years in office.
Gain claims
For the rebels, Duterte’s decision to reengage them in negotiations was an implied admission that the government cannot stop the communist-inspired insurgency in its current track, and such projection of strength was repeated during the celebration of the CPP’s 51 years of existence on December 26, 2019.
Even before and right after Duterte had formally terminated the talks with the NDFP in December 2018—through the issuance of Executive Order 70, which paved the way for the creation of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-Elcac)—the rebels have been saying that if they had managed to survive previous administrations, there is no reason they cannot endure Duterte’s six-year term which ends in 2022.
The only thing that could end the communist movement, they said, is a negotiated political solution by way of peace talks.
On the other hand, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has maintained that the rebels are in continuous decline, given the steady and unprecedented surrender of their comrades through the efforts of the various regional, provincial and local task forces on Elcac.
“We have heightened our internal security operations this year, aligned with the President’s agenda to end local communist armed conflict and other terrorist activities,” said Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana in his yearend message.
“In 2019, Task Force Balik-Loob, headed by Undersecretary for Civil, Veterans and Retiree Affairs Reynaldo B. Mapagu, has extended the government’s support to former NPA rebels through various government programs provided by member and partner-agencies of the task force,” he added.
The defense chief said the military is also continuing to serve the needs of rebel-affected communities through the “Community Support Program” as part of the “whole of nation” approach in ending the insurgency.
Beefing up rebel units
On the occasion of the CPP anniversary, CPP founder Jose Maria Sison claimed that the movement’s armed wing has managed to form more units, aside from beefing up its militia groups and underground mass-based organizations.
“It keeps on creating new units of the people’s army and the auxiliary forces of the people’s militia and the self-defense units in mass organizations,” Sison said in a statement.
“The NPA personnel are rotated periodically for combat and other non-combat tasks in order to develop their skills in a well-rounded war,” he added.
Sison said the CPP is determined to lead the NPA in bringing about the full development of the “strategic defensive of the people’s war” to the advanced stage from the middle phase through extensive and intensive guerrilla warfare.
The current administration, Sison said, is currently surrounded by the “legal democratic movement, the revolutionary movement and by the intrasystemic conservative opposition.”
He said Duterte has “offered peace negotiations with the NDFP because his efforts to destroy the CPP and mass-based organizations have failed.”
Communism in decline
While Sison insisted on touting the communists’ gains, the military, however, said the communist movement is on a steady downtrend, both in terms of manpower and influence in all areas where it operates.
The decline was borne by the consistent surrender and neutralization of its leaders and members, including members of its mass-based support groups and auxiliary forces like the Milisya ng Bayan (MB), according to military officials.
In Central Luzon, Col. Andrew Costelo, commander of the Army’s 703rd Infantry Brigade, said more than 700 rebels and their supporters had surrendered to the government in the last quarter of last year alone.
Two groups of farmers, the Malayang Aniban ng mga Magsasaka sa Manggang Marikit, Bagong Barrio at Yuson (Mammbayu) and Nagkakaisang Magsasaka sa Nampicuan (Namana), have also cut their ties with the NPA and availed themselves of community support programs dangled by the military.
The Mammbayu, organized in the 1990s as a mass-based group for the rebels, illegally occupied a 100-hectare lot in Nueva Ecija, putting it in conflict for 28 years with another farmers’ group to which the land has been awarded through the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP).
On the other hand, Namana, also a mass-based group of the NPA, was allegedly involved in the forced and illegal occupation of a hacienda.
Maj. Gen. Lenard Agustin, commander of the 7th Infantry Division, said the stream of surrenders was a result of the “whole of nation” approach in dealing with the insurgency.
In Southern Tagalog, a big number of rebels and their supporters have also yielded to the government, while a number of their leaders have been neutralized, including Jaime Padilla and Armando Lazarte, who allegedly held key positions in regional and national levels of the underground movement.
“Such accomplishments are on top of the numerous encounters and surrenders, which resulted [in the] drastic decrease in the NPA’s manpower and firearms, thereby rendering them irrelevant and pushing them on the brink of collapse,” Army 2nd Infantry Division commander Brig. Gen Arnulfo Marcelo Burgos said.
“Indeed, their eventual dismantling and the liberation of Southern Tagalog from the clutches of these communist terrorists is just a matter of time,” he added.
Burgos, known to his peers as the “consensus builder,” said the activation and operations of the regional Elcacs in Calabarzon and Mimaropa have been effective in addressing the root causes of insurgency, thereby denying the rebels their “much-needed mass base support, which, in turn, denies them the area to operate and exist.”
In Eastern Mindanao, at least 696 regular members of the NPA surrendered last year while another 85 were arrested and 56 others were killed during encounters, according to government data.
Armed Forces Eastern Mindanao Command spokesman Lt. Col. Ezra Balagtey said the number of “atrocities” perpetrated by the rebels went down steadily from 2018 up to last year.
“Based on the recorded atrocities perpetrated by the CTGs [communist terrorist groups] from first-quarter 2018 to this date, there is a downward slope per quarter, with 45 atrocities recorded in the first quarter of 2018 (Q1 2018), 38; Q2 2018 46; Q3 2018, 28; Q4 2018, 23:Q1 2019, 24; Q2 2019, 17; Q3 2019) down to nine for this quarter,” Balagtey said.
The local military spokesman said at least 689 firearms were turned over to the military by former rebels last year, while 364 were captured during encounters.
Likewise, 6,283 rebel supporters, or members of underground mass organizations, have severed their ties with the NPA.
“As of this time, nine municipalities, four cities, 46 municipalities, and 24 organizations in the whole area of EMC [Eastern Mindanao Command] declared the CTGs as persona non grata which forced them to be mobile and consolidate in the political boundaries of provinces,” Balagtey said.
He said soldiers recorded a total of 275 armed encounters with rebels last year and discovered 302 hideouts all over Eastern Mindanao.
As the tit-for-tat claims of strength continue, meanwhile, preparations for the latest attempt at peace negotiations are also ongoing. Whether or not this fresh attempt will truly lead to a just, comprehensive and lasting solution remains a big question. Yet, it speaks much of both sides that, for all their massive differences, they are willing to take this one new crack at peace.
Image credits: AP/Aaron Favila, Berit Roald/NTB scanpix via AP