Forget the “dot.com” bubble. Ignore “Black Monday” in 1987 and again in 2005. “Black Wednesday in 1992 was of little importance. Certainly “Black Thursday 1929” means nothing. Maybe the most important “black” day to the Philippines is the “Black Friday” when Christmas shopping in the US officially starts and your stateside relatives might be choosing your gift.
The most serious financial disaster prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the beginning of Global Debt disintegration never had a “black” day. The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis sort of rolled in like an apocalypse turning one economy after another into zombies slowly but surely. We were never honored by having a “Black Day.”
Aside from having to take down a $1-billion credit facility from the International Monetary Fund, and interest rates going sky high, not much happened here. The Philippines was not one of the “Tiger Cubs” that had a strong economy that could crash. We were more like “Tiger Poop” that was already at the bottom of the cage.
The economy was growing at about 4 percent prior to 1997 and went into recession in 1998. But the factor that “saved” the Philippines was that the economy was so small and the peso so insignificant that nobody bothered to take advantage of the situation. The foreign reserves at that time was $12 billion and as other Asian currencies collapsed, the peso did have a day or two of trading $1 billion as Filipinos headed for the US dollar. Had foreign-based currency speculators “attacked” the peso, it would have been “Godzilla versus Tuko.” And tiny lizards do not make much of a meal.
Fast forward twenty-some years and the Philippines did pay a price during the beginning of the global debt crisis. While 1997 was more of an annoyance—unless you were one of those brilliant corporations that had borrowed big in dollars—2007 was a “pain in the puwit” but not a disaster.
I have spoken countless times about the next financial “crisis” that is coming, beginning in 2020. But this is not a crisis in the sense of a Black Monday event. While I said that 1997 did not get a black day, that is not exactly accurate. On July 2, 1997, the Bank of Thailand did devalue the baht and everything went to hell quickly around the region.
This time, though, we are looking at a slow burn that will increase with intensity. For example, sales for personal computers and private vehicles have peaked and are now declining. Total global retail sales hit its high in 2018. Many experts expect the downtrend to reverse in 2022. They are going to be wrong.
US freight railroads, which along with trucking have long been used as a gauge of the country’s economic health, continue to show declines in traffic. Total carload traffic is down 8.8 percent from 2018. Total North American—including Mexico and Canada—rail volume is 3.2 percent lower than 2018.
Newly installed head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde said this is the face of negative interest rates that prove the “worthlessness” of cash. “We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected.” Or “Eat your lugaw and shut up.” That sums up the current global economic policy in one sentence.
And the Philippines is going to prosper; maybe boom.
We will see foreign money come to our shores as a safe and profitable haven. Domestic goods production will slowly continue to grow to meet consumer demand. Global oil prices and Philippine inflation will remain low. And I see 2020 and beyond as a new period of Philippine prosperity.
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E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my web site at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.
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