THE Philippines may import less wheat as the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) could cut demand for feed wheat used for manufacturing animal feeds, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network (Gain) report.
The Gain report, which was prepared by the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Manila, said the Philippines’s wheat imports could decline by 6.56 percent to 7.05 million metric tons (MMT) in market year (MY) 2019-2020.
The report attributed this to the projected 10-percent drop in local hog feed demand following the outbreak of ASF in local hog farms.
“The arrival of African swine fever in the Philippines will lead to a 10-percent reduction in hog feed demand, resulting in feed wheat imports falling 500,000 tons in MY 2018/19 to 7.1 million metric tons,” the report read.
The report noted that the Philippines’s wheat purchases in MY 2019/2020 are nearly 495,000 metric tons (MT) lower than the 7.545 MMT imported volume in MY 2018/2019. The wheat market year in the US begins in July and ends in June of the following year.
FAS lowered its wheat import forecast for the Philippines in the current market year by 350,000 MT from its previous estimate of 7.4 MMT.
“The reduced volume represents the estimated amount of feed energy needed, assuming a 10-percent reduction in hog feed demand during the July-June crop year,” it explained.
“Imported feed wheat is expected to be affected the most compared to corn and cassava (i.e., tapioca), which are both grown locally,” it added.
In a separate report released last week, the USDA projected that the Philippines’s pork production would decline by 16.42 percent to 1.4 MMT next year, from the estimated output of 1.675 MMT this year due to ASF. The Department of Agriculture (DA) Crisis Management Task Force on Swine said ASF has spread to over 20 barangays in Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga and Quezon City.
Last week, the DA disclosed that the number of pigs infected with ASF in the Philippines has reached 12,000 heads.
The task force said the number of ASF-positive hogs is only one-third of the total depopulated pigs, or about 36,000 heads, in all ground zeroes, or those within the 1-kilometer quarantine zones.
To date, the DA said 17 barangays were struck by ASF: Rodriguez, Rizal (Barangays San Isidro, San Jose, Macabud, Geronimo, San Rafael, Mascap, San Mateo Slaughterhouse), Quezon City (Barangays Bagong Silangan, Payatas, Tatalon, Pasong Tamo, Commonwealth and Tandang Sora), Antipolo (Barangays Cupang and another unidentified area), Barangay Mapandan, Pangasinan, and Barangay Pritil, Guiguinto, Bulacan.
Image credits: Provincial Veterinary Office of Pangasinan