THE influx of cheaper imported rice with the opening up of the domestic market will drive up the country’s total requirement of the staple by 14.16 percent to nearly 16 million metric tons by 2030 from the current 13.91 MMT.
This is one of the projections of the Department of Agriculture (DA) under the latest draft of the Philippine Rice Industry Roadmap (PRIR), a copy of which was obtained by the BusinessMirror.
The draft blueprint has yet to be approved by the Agriculture Secretary and will still undergo further contextual analysis. The latest draft was based on previous consultations with rice industry stakeholders.
The draft blueprint stipulated that the wholesale price of rice is expected to drop to P35 per kilogram from P40 per kg last year as a result of higher volume of imported rice.
The DA estimated that the wholesale price of 25-percent broken rice would be about P35.31 per kg. Due to this, the country’s annual per capita rice consumption will increase by 3.63 percent from 110 kg to 114 kg, according to the draft document.
“Given the 2018 domestic wholesale price of around P40 per kg, the reduction to P35 per kg will encourage the consumption of more rice. Thus, the annual per capita rice consumption is expected to increase from 110 [kg] to 114 [kg],” the document read.
“Assuming no further increase in other uses of rice, the total rice use is projected to increase from 13.91 [MMT] in 2019 to 15.88 [MMT] in 2030,” the document added.
Based on the latest survey of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the country’s per capita consumption in 2015 to 2016 declined to 109.875 kg from 114.265 kg in 2012.
Latest PSA figures showed that both the average wholesale prices of well-milled rice (WMR) and regular-milled rice (RMR) are down by as much as 20 percent from their last year’s quotations.
The average wholesale quotation of WMR in the first week of September fell by 16.23 percent to P38.61 per kg from P46.10 per kg last year, PSA data showed. This is now the latest average wholesale price of WMR since the third week of May 2017, when the variety posted a quotation of P38.61 per kg.
Likewise, the average wholesale price of RMR declined by 20.72 percent to P34.40 per kg from P43.39 per kg last year, PSA data showed. The latest figure is the lowest since the fifth week of December 2017, when average wholesale price of RMR was at P34.35 per kg.
The draft blueprint indicated that the country’s total rice requirement would increase to 14.45 MMT by 2022 and 15.18 MMT by 2026.
Caveat: other factors at play
However, the draft roadmap pointed out that the projections made by the DA “preclude other factors that can affect consumption.”
It read: “Rise in per-capita income may initially result in higher expenditure in food, including rice.”
Experiences in other countries, it added, “showed that further increase in income also triggers a shift in diet from foods high in carbohydrates to those rich in protein, vitamins, and minerals. With higher income level, consumers also prioritize food quality and nutritional value over quantity.”
The draft road map said the above-mentioned factors would “affect the future of rice supply and demand in the Philippines.”
2 comments
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