AT least six power plants that supply electricity to the country’s largest distribution firm—the Manila Electric Co. (Meralco)—are expected to go on scheduled shutdowns this year. With the stoppages, some 1,135 megawatts (MW) of capacity will be shaved off from the Luzon grid during summer months just as when demand is at its peak.
Based on the latest 2019 plant outages schedule provided by Meralco to the BusinessMirror, the Pagbilao 1 coal plant (350MW) will go offline from March 30 to April 28; Santa Rita gas plant module 20 (255.7MW) from April 18 to 21; Santa Rita module 40 (264MW) from June 22 to 26; and Santa Rita module 30 (265.5MW) from June 27 to July 1.
Meralco Head of Utility Economics Lawrence Fernandez said these are some of the plants with which the utility firm has contracts. He said Meralco has no information on forced outages since these are unscheduled.
Peak power periods in Luzon are expected within the months of April and May, with the rising summer temperature prompting a spike in demand.
During summer months, a typical household’s electricity consumption goes up by 26 percent. Fernandez said this is the average household consumption based on available data from 2010 to 2018.
“I will have to see what the bill impact may be. We will have to consider the effect of the socialized distribution charge rate, which means that the distribution charge is higher for higher consumption levels. Conversely, the distribution charge is lower at smaller consumption levels,” said Fernandez when asked to provide an estimate on bill adjustment during the summer months.
The Department of Energy (DOE), meanwhile, expects only 600 MW to 700 MW of capacity that will not be available from March to June this year.
“We [expect] 600 MW to 700 MW will be reduced from the Luzon grid from March to June,” said DOE Assistant Secretary Redentor Delola. Without naming the power plants, Delola said a 382-MW coal plant will go offline until April and a 300-MW coal plant will not be operational until June.
But because of the new power facilities coming online, Delola assured the public, “there is nothing to worry about.”
New capacities
A TOTAL of 1,272.2 MW of new power capacity that should be available between March and July this year and rescheduling the maintenance shutdown of some power plants that are supposed to go offline during election period are likely to prevent power-interruption incidents in the country during the summer months.
Luzon is expected to produce 571.2 MW of new power generating capacity, the Visayas with 300 MW and Mindanao with 401 MW.
Luzon is depending on the entry of the 150-MW coal fired power plant in Limay, Bataan; 5-MW biomass plant in Isabela; 300-MW coal-fired power plant in Masinloc, Zambales; 1.2-MW FQBG biomass plant; and 115 MW solar plant in Concepcion, Tarlac.
“There’s a directive to power plants that one week prior and after elections, there will be a moratorium on maintenance,” Delola said.
In the Visayas, two 150-MW units of Therma Visayas Inc.’s coal power plant are expected to start commercial operation by March and April.
Mindanao, on the other hand, will have additional capacity from unit 2 of the Sarangani Energy Corp. coal plant (150 MW) this month, unit 1 of GN Power Kauswagan coal plant (138 MW) in May, solar plant of Astroenergy Development Gensan Inc. (20 MW) in June and unit 2 of GN Power Kauswagan coal plant (138 MW) in July.
“From the supply side, we can see a sufficient supply from March, April, May and June,” added Delola.
All-time high
DEMAND for power is expected to hit an all-time high this year, the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) said.
“The demand for power has been increasing year-on-year. With DOE’s forecast breaching 11,000 MW, NGCP’s system operations is working round-the-clock to ensure the sufficient supply of power during the critical summer months,” said the grid operator.
Demand in Luzon is expected to peak at 11,403 MW in May this year, up by 85 percent from a high of 10,876 MW recorded on May 28, 2018.
The Visayas and Mindanao both recorded new highs in peak demand last year at 2,053 MW on May 24 and 1,853 MW on December 13, respectively. This year, the DOE projects an 11.98-percent increase in the Visayas load growth with forecasted peak at 2,299 MW, while demand in Mindanao is estimated at 2,130 MW. The forecasted peak demand for both is expected to happen in the last quarter of 2019.
The NGCP gave assurances that it is continuously developing the power grid to accommodate additional loads from power generation and enable better transmission of power across the country.
“Constant coordination is also being done with power generating plants to make sure that maintenance shutdowns will not coincide with the peak periods within the summer,” said NGCP.
Moreover, the grid operator is expediting the completion of projects aimed to accommodate the increase in demand.
‘Weak El Niño’
EVEN before the water shortage occurred last month, energy officials assured the public that there is stable power supply in Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao despite El Niño.
DOE Undersecretary Felix William Fuentebella said a “weak” El Niño is expected and this will have a minimal impact on the entire power grid because of additional capacities coming on in the power grid.
Based on DOE’s internal study, he said, El Niño is seen to have the greatest impact in Luzon due to the number of hydroelectric power plants (HEPPs) in the area. It said that power reserve level will be below the required dispatchable reserve level from April 5 to June 13.
The capacity of these HEPP is equivalent to 30 percent of the entire grid’s output. Still, officials assured the public that the Luzon grid will be in normal condition despite the assumed reduction of hydro capacity.
In the Visayas, power conditions will likewise be normal given the minimal number of HEPPs and the marginal HEPP contribution share of 0.6 percent of the dependable capacity in the region.
In Mindanao, even if the hydro plants comprise 27.5 percent of the grid’s total supply, power will remain stable due to large coal-fired power plants that will offset output from the hydro plants.
Mitigating measures
THE DOE reminded consumers to not let their guard down and keep on saving energy even during times when there are no service interruptions.
“While there will be sufficient power throughout this summer, we continue to call on our kababayan to observe energy-efficient practices, such as setting our air conditioner thermostats to 24°C or 25°C, regardless of power-supply conditions. Energy efficiency and the mindful consumption of electricity should be our way of life,” said DOE Secretary Alfonso Cusi.
The agency has put in place mitigating measures to ensure the continuous and efficient electricity services in the midst of El Niño and the midterm elections in May.
These include the management of plant maintenance schedules, the optimization of existing HEPP, the preparation of available generator sets for unforeseen outages, participation of big establishments in the Interruptible Load Program (ILP), as well as the continued call for energy efficiency for all electricity end-users.
Meralco could activate its ILP—a voluntary, demand-side management program that allows customers to operate their generating sets and collectively reduce electricity drawn from the grid when power interruptions are imminent to ration limited power supply.
Under the Energy Regulatory Commission’s rules, ILP may only be triggered when the NGCP declares a red alert and there is impending need to drop loads.
“While the power supply situation these past two weeks has been normal and we have experienced ample supply, we are still encouraging our customers to practice energy efficiency and make it a way of life. Especially now that summer is fast approaching, it is important to practice energy efficiency initiatives which can somehow also lead to some savings on your electricity bills through lower power consumption,” said Meralco spokesman Joe Zaldarriaga.
Energy conservation
MEANWHILE, the Congressional Bicameral Conference Committee of the reconciled Senate and House versions recently approved the measure institutionalizing a framework to advance energy efficiency and conservation practices in the country is timely.
The reconciled version of Senate Bill 1531 and House Bill 8629 is more popularly known as the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act.
“This bill is quite important in terms of growing our economy because we all know we need a lot of power supply in the next few years, but the power supply will not come in as a form of physical plants. That power supply can come in the form of savings,” said Senate Committee on Energy Chairman Sherwin T. Gatchalian, the principal sponsor of the measure in the Senate.
Senate Bill 1531 mandates the creation of a National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Plan that defines national targets, details feasible strategies, and imposes a regular monitoring and evaluation system.
Alongside this will be the development and maintenance of a National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Database, where relevant information about energy consumption as well as the application of energy efficient and renewable energy technologies shall be centrally stored.
The measure also institutionalizes these energy efficiency and conservation standards and strategies in local governance through the creation of a Local Energy Efficiency and Conservation Plan and the inclusion of Guidelines on Energy Conserving Design on Buildings in the issuance of building permits.
The EU Access to Sustainable Energy Programme estimates that a 10-percent improvement in efficiency will save the country P55.5 billion, which translates to a P140 monthly savings in the monthly electricity bill of the average household, or P1,680 per year. The World Bank also reports that government energy efficiency projects can save the government P3.4 billion per year.
Aside from electricity cost savings, Gatchalian said energy efficiency would also reduce dependency on foreign coal, avoiding as many as 290.2 million metric tons in imports over the 12-year period. This means an average annual savings of $392 million to $1.3 billion between 2018 and 2030 at the 50-percent and 100-percent efficiency standard, respectively.
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