The Philippines cannot seem to get out of an awkward position between China and the United States, and may never be able to extricate itself from there. There’s no doubt that part of President Duterte’s intention to form a more balanced foreign policy was an attempt to do that, and it was successful to a certain extent.
But history will never forget that the Philippines was a US colony and a US military outpost for many decades. Likewise, geography has effectively placed the Philippines between the Red Dragon and the American Eagle. There is nothing that we can do about that either.
When speaking about the situation in this region, some experts always say something along the lines of “Why can’t the Philippines be more aggressive like Vietnam?” That sort of ignores the history of Vietnam repelling multiple Chinese invasions for the past 500 years, most recently in 1979. China occupied Vietnam prior to that, until 1428.
The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo came to the Philippines saying, “We have your back,” promising US intervention if China attacks us. The State Secretary would not say something so specific to Vietnam. “No thanks Uncle Sam…we tried that once, and it didn’t work out so well.”
Instead, the US delivered six fast-response patrol boats and equipment worth $20 million to “deter bad actors from committing crimes against or near Vietnam,” the US embassy said in a statement, citing among other threats like “environmental degradation, illegal fishing and piracy.” No mention was made of using these vessels if China starts building military installations on Vietnamese territory.
So now the US has come to the aid of the Philippines by putting—in effect threatening—China on notice not to try anything foolish with the Philippines.
Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana responded: “The Philippines is not in a conflict with anyone and will not be at war with anyone in the future. But the United States, with the increased and frequent passage of its naval vessels in the West Philippine Sea, is more likely to be involved in a shooting war. In such a case and on the basis of the Mutual Defense Treaty, the Philippines will be automatically involved.”
Some thought that Lorenzana’s remarks were ill-advised, but he may have a point. Lorenzana went on to say that the Philippines-US Mutual Defense Treaty was ambiguous and vague, and risked causing “confusion and chaos during a crisis.”
The Philippines is in no position economically or militarily to choose sides. Further, no matter how unlikely, what if the US for some reason wanted to use the Chinese incursion into Philippine territory as an excuse to go to war with China? The genuine thorn in China’s neck is Taiwan.
But an excuse to get China to back down a little on Taiwan could be “tensions” over Philippine territory. We are in between a geo-political and geo-military rock and a hard place.