Oil fell toward the lowest level in almost two weeks as global growth concerns continued to damp the demand outlook, with investors hoping for positive news from high-level US-China trade talks this week.
Futures dropped as much as 1.6 percent in New York, following a 4.6-percent decline last week that was the biggest this year. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are heading to Beijing for discussions before a March 1 deadline set by the US to more than double tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Hedge funds plowed back into bearish bets on Brent crude in the week through February 5.
West Texas Intermediate oil has reversed course after the best January on record as a lack of progress on the trade war and growth warnings from Europe, Asia and elsewhere depressed the demand outlook. In more bearish news, American drillers added seven working oil rigs last week, bolstering concern that record US production will undermine efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to curb a global glut.
“We’ll see oil trading in a range between $50 and $55 a barrel in the short term as uncertainties linger over the US-China trade negotiations, as well as over wider economic growth,” said Vincent Hwang, a commodities analyst at NH Investment & Securities Co. in Seoul. Crude is likely to recover to near $60 a barrel in the longer term once the macroeconomic concerns ease, he said.
West Texas Intermediate oil for March delivery dropped 60 cents to $52.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:53 a.m. in London after falling as much as 82 cents earlier. The contract closed 8 cents higher at $52.72 on Friday.
Brent for April settlement lost 30 cents to $61.80 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract climbed 47 cents to $62.10 on Friday. The global benchmark crude was at a $9.29 premium to WTI for the same month, the highest in more than seven weeks.
Investors are hoping that the world’s two biggest economies can get their trade talks back on track after US President Donald J. Trump said last week that he’s unlikely to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, before the end of the 90-day truce on March 1. Fears are intensifying a deal won’t be reached, which could spur a tit-for-tat escalation that would make an already shaky global growth outlook even worse.
Short-sellers boosted wagers by 28 percent, the most since October, that Brent crude prices would fall, according to data released on Friday by ICE Futures Europe Exchange. Net-longs—the difference between bets on a Brent increase and wagers on a decline—nudged up by less than 1 percent.