‘IMAGINARY though the island chain may be, it is a metaphor that nonetheless weighed heavily on the mind of one of China’s popular strategist, Admiral Liu Huaqing, and it continues to be an obsession with Chinese military planners to this day.
“In fact, China’s focus on breaking out of the First Island Chain [FIC] is entirely appropriate because of the very real constraints this chain poses for China’s navy,” said Professors James Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara of the US Naval War College.
One clear problem is that Liu’s “near seas” are riddled with choke points, and China’s surface ships are easily ranged by missiles or fighter jets from American forward bases in Japan, the Philippines and South Korea. To Admiral Liu, therefore, it was painfully obvious that the first step to achieving global naval supremacy was to break the bonds of the FIC.
As to how that might be done is one of the topics of one of the best-selling book, Croaching Tiger, authored by Peter Navarro, President Trump’s trade adviser. For now, know that the second step in Admiral Liu’s recipe for Mahanian supremacy was breaking out of the Second Island Chain (SIC).
The SIC starts at the midpoint of the Japanese home islands. It then swings out into the Pacific over to the Northern Mariana Islands, which include most notably Saipan. The SIC next travels to its rough midpoint at Guam and from there it moves over to Palau, finally ending at Indonesia’s Papua Province and Papua New Guinea.
What each of these Pacific Island links in the SIC have in common is their strategic importance as “stepping stones” that were used by the US Navy to fight its way back from a bloodied and battered Hawaii through the Pacific to eventually be in a position to bomb the Japanese home islands, and thereby force the Japanese to surrender.
This is history that was certainly not lost on Admiral Liu. Today, Guam—once the site of one of the costliest battles of World War II—looms particularly large as a strategic American base, anchoring the SIC in much the same way that Taiwan anchors the FIC.
For Admiral Liu, the goal was to break out of this SIC by the year 2020, and the now-aircraft-carrier-equipped Chinese navy appears well on its way to hitting this target.
The third step in Admiral Liu’s strategy was for China to achieve global naval supremacy by the year 2050.
Today, there is considerable evidence both from Chinese military documents and from Western military analysts that China’s strategic path is closely following Admiral Liu’s three-step blueprint.
Unfortunately for the cause of peace, this is a blueprint that by definition is a zero-sum game.
In fact, the scope of Admiral Liu’s vision was absolutely breathtaking given that he articulated this vision back in an era when the Chinese navy was more akin to a coast guard than a global fighting fleet.
According to Navarro, “There is considerable evidence both from Chinese military documents and from Western military analysts that China’s strategic path is closely following Admiral Liu’s three-step blueprint.”
Navarro provides the most complete and accurate assessment of the probability of conflict between the United States and the rising Asian superpower. Equally important, he lays out an in-depth analysis of the possible pathways to peace.
Written like a geopolitical detective story, he encourages readers’ interaction by starting each chapter with an intriguing question that often challenges conventional wisdom.
With his interviews of 30 top experts, Navarro “highlights a number of disturbing facts about China’s recent military buildup and the shifting balance of power in Asia: the Chinese are deploying game changing ‘carrier killer’ ballistic missiles; some of America’s supposed allies in Europe and Asia are selling highly lethal weapons systems to China in a perverse twist on globalization; and, on the US side, debilitating cutbacks in the military budget send a message to the world that America is not serious about its ‘pivot to Asia.’”
“In the face of these threatening developments, the book stresses the importance of maintaining US military strength and preparedness and strengthening alliances, while warning against a complacent optimism that relies on economic engagement, negotiations, and nuclear deterrence to ensure peace.”
Navarro’s multidisciplinary work, “accessible to readers from all walks of life, blends geopolitics, economics, history, international relations, military doctrine and political science to provide a better understanding of one of the most vexing problems facing the world.”
To reach the writer, e-mail cecilio.arillo@gmail.com.