The increasing demand for meat owing to the improvement in the purchasing power of Filipinos would outpace local production and double the country’s imports by 2027.
The joint report of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, titled, “Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027,” published on July 3 indicated the sustained hike in meat demand in the Philippines.
“Strong production growth rates over the outlook period are also expected in Brazil, Mexico, Philippines, the Russian Federation, the United States and Vietnam,” the report read.
The joint report projected that the Philippines’s total meat production from 2018 to 2027 would expand at an average rate of 1.95 percent, slower than the 2.93 percent recorded from 2008 to 2017.
In 2027, the country’s total meat output would reach 4.397 million metric tons in carcass weight (MMT-CWE), 26.68 percent higher than the 2015-2017 average production of 3.471 MMT-CWE.
For this year alone, the country’s meat output is projected to increase by 3.46 percent to 3.716 MMT-CWE, from last year’s 3.592 MMT-CWE.
The data on Philippine meat output covers pork, poultry, beef and lamb. Pork production is expected to account for more than half of the country’s total meat output in the next 10 years.
The OECD-FAO projected that pork production from 2018 to 2027 would grow by an average of 1.78 percent annually and hit 2.346 MMT-CWE by 2027. The report also estimated that pork production in 2015 to 2017 averaged 1.863 MMT-CWE.
Despite the bright prospects for the local meat industry, output would still be insufficient to meet domestic demand. “The projected production growth in developing countries remains insufficient to satisfy demand growth, particularly in Asia and Africa.”
The OECD-FAO report indicated that the country’s meat demand from 2018 to 2027 would expand at an average annual growth of 2.51 percent, faster than the 1.95-percent 10-year average growth of the country’s meat output.
By 2027, the Philippines’s total meat consumption would reach 5.277 MMT-CWE, 33.8 percent higher than the 3.944 MMT-CWE estimated average demand from 2015 to 2017.
The double-digit growth in the country’s meat demand translates into a 0.45-percent average growth from 2018 to 2027 in the Filipinos’ per-capita consumption.
The report projected that a Filipino would consume at least 50.7 kilograms (kg) of meat by 2027. The country’s per-capita meat consumption from 2015 to 2017 averaged 49.8 kg.
The shortfall in the Philippines’s meat output is expected to be plugged by imports, according to the OECD-FAO. Philippine meat imports would reach 887,000 MT-CWE, 84.79 percent higher than the average annual imports of 480,000 MT-CWE from 2015 to 2017.
The report also indicated that the country’s meat imports would grow at an average rate of 5.85 percent from 2018 to 2027.
“Asia will account for the greatest share of additional imports, with the greatest increases in the Philippines and Vietnam, where consumption growth is outpacing domestic production expansion,” the report read.
“Vietnam and the Philippines are expected to capture a larger share of additional imports for all meat types, supported by favorable economic growth,” it added.
Image credits: Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg