A slew of contradictions besets United States President Donald J. Trump as he traipses his way through his controversial historic trip to Asia in a tightrope-balancing act amid tensions with North Korea, continuous barbs against him from home, or being compared with former President Obama’s “Pivot to Asia,” while sealing his plans of finally joining China’s “One Belt, One Road” in his separate meetings with Xi Ji Ping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin that could possibly end the decades-old geopolitical cold war.
Trump’s card vs Obama’s pivot. President Trump does not mince words when he talks tough, saying “the era of strategic patience is over. It is not the time for dialogue, but we need maximum pressure,” although he admits willingness to sit down later with Kim Jong Un.
Trump’s loud foul mouth is reinforcing tensions, in contrast to Obama’s soft-spoken cool calibrated pronouncements, but both their actions convey contrary messages. Trump appears dangerously aggressive and detested, but Obama’s realpolitik turned out more insidious and incendiary but cloaked behind a façade.
Ironically, while Trump is more combative against cooler Obama, he wants peace doing business with cold-war enemies China and Russia as opposed to Obama’s Pivot to Asia that heated up tension in the region; forced South Korea to install Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missiles, not really aimed at North Korea, but at China and Russia; influenced Japan to reconsider military-neutral constitution and for former President Benigno S. Aquino III to sign the controversial Extended Defense Cooperation Agreement and filing charges against China.
Obama’s overtures forced China to encroach further as a forward defense move, which dangerously triggered fears of the “Thucydides Trap,” referring to the 27-year Peloponnesian war that led to the fall of the Greek civilization only because of pride and hubris among Greek leaders, which can happen anew with China and US at each other’s necks.
Trump’s sorrows over Soros? Despite Trump’s obnoxious character and loose lips, his obsession for business as expressed in his book The Art of the Deal made him to deal with arch enemies Russia and China, thus the frantic reaction to sabotage his Asian trip, by neoconservative hawks representing the industrial-military complex, which wants perpetual wars and revolutions.
For two decades, the Bush and Obama administrations fueled wars globally, some triggered by George Soros’s color revolutions hiding behind legitimate issues (i.e., Ukraine’s 2004 Orange revolution, Georgia’s Rose Revolution, Russia’s failed White Revolution, Hong Kong’s Yellow Umbrella Revolution, Arab Spring and the recent Purple revolution, combining colors of blue-Democrats and red-Republicans against Trump linking his victory to Russian intervention, which turns out to be a hoax.
Trump knows these wars cost US over $6 trillion the past 15 years, hundreds of thousands of lives and millions of refugees. He wants to cut costs by doing business instead with traditional enemies Russia and China. He wants North Atlantic Treaty Organizations, a remnant of the cold war, scrapped and can’t forget when Obama sent 4,000 troops to Poland only two weeks before he took office, provoking Russia and disrespecting his incoming presidency.
Meanwhile, Trump’s crass threat on North Korea is causing nervousness, but “hawks” and deep state military factions, who want war, are rejoicing as it justifies the
deployment of 7 of America’s 11 aircraft carriers near Korea.
Trump’s card giving way to China? Let’s hope Trump’s hubris and hot temper don’t trigger a nuclear war wiping out civilization in an hour, instead let his desire to do business prevail as he grabs China’s and Russia’s offer for a win-win development agenda.
China alone plans six major development corridors: 1) China to Central and Western Asia, extending through Iraq, Syria, Turkey, into Europe and into Africa; 2) China to Western Europe all the way to Hamburg, Rotterdam and Madrid; 3) Mongolia-China-Russia involving 32 large projects; 4) China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, with China investing $46 billion and creating 700,000 new jobs in Pakistan; 5) Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar corridor; and 6) China-Indochina Peninsular corridor.
It is building railways, water systems and bus assembly plants (not exporting buses) to various countries in Africa, thus, reversing centuries of poverty and ignorance. It is also building Kra Canal in Thailand to the Indian Ocean, shortening travel by 1,200 kilometers and bypassing Singapore, but creating 3 million jobs. Another project is the $49-billion 173-mile Nicaragua Canal that’s nearer, wider and 3.5 times longer than Panama Canal. With Russia, it plans linking Siberia and Alaska at the Bering Straits, followed by massive projects all the way to South America, but needs US participation.
Trump promised America $1 trillion in infrastructure over 10 years, but China experts say $8 trilllion is needed. Jack Ma of Alibaba even offered a platform for another $1 trillion for Chinese investors in America. Trump can’t refuse China’s offer as it owes China $1.4 trillion in US Treasuries, which can serve as collateral for more infrastructure investments.
Casus belli over breaking Wall Street? Recently, former Goldman Sachs chief and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, representing Wall Street, was cited in Washington Post demanding Trump to insist that China’s financial markets open up to Wall Street’s investment bank/hedge funds to lengthen the life of its financial markets now facing another potential bubble.
But Trump has long declared reviving Franklin Roosevelt’s 1933 Glass-Steagall Act separating commercial and investment banking, that will break down Wall Street and the financial oligarchs, who consider it a “casus belli,” or justification for war.
Wall Street opposes regulation and wants freer financial markets, which, unfortunately, led to ballooning derivatives and fictitious debts to over $708 trillion in 2016 alone, bigger than the global GDP of $70 trillion a year. Ironically, while big banks were bailed out, small banks lending to small businesses that create real physical wealth were forced into bankruptcy. From 2007 to 2012 alone, scores of small American banks closed shop.
How Trump plays his card will determine the world economy and politics ahead.
E-mail: mikealunan@yahoo.com.