IS there a correlation between free and fair elections and economic growth?
From our own experience in the 2016 general elections that were fully automated from the actual voting to the counting of the votes, we can definitely conclude that clean and credible polls are an important factor in boosting economic growth.
In 2016 our GDP posted growth of 6.9 percent, allowing the country to emerge as the top performer in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. This year, the economy is projected to maintain its growth rate of between 6.5 percent to 7 percent. For next year, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) sees our economy growing at 6.7 percent.
For its part, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) retained a growth forecast of 6.6 percent for the Philippines this year. The IMF expects the Philippines to continue outperforming other economies in Asean, particularly Vietnam (6.3 percent); Malaysia (5.4 percent); Indonesia (5.2 percent); and Thailand ( 3.7 percent).
Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III sees an average growth rate of 7 percent for the Philippines from 2017 onwards, as well within our grasp as our macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong, with robust overseas Filipino workers remittances also keeping the economy on even keel.
Sustained economic growth is possible only with political stability. While we have to deal with extremist groups in southern Philippines and the communist rebellion in certain parts of the country, the threats remain manageable.
The expansion of the Philippine economy is not surprising as both local and foreign investors remain optimistic about our growth prospects, and are confident that our political system can overcome challenges.
A vibrant democracy allows not just political dissent but also ensures credible elections. The three automated polls we have had so far in 2010, 2013 and 2016 restored our people’s faith in our electoral process despite technical glitches here and there.
The automated election in 2016 is generally considered clean and fair and reflective of the people’s will.
Manual elections in the past had been marked by the rule of the three Gs—guns goons and gold—thus, allowing traditional politicians and dynasties to dominate the political system. Automated elections reinvigorated our electoral process, and marks a significant departure from the manual system that tended to perpetuate patronage politics in the country.
If we hope to maintain the trust and confidence of investors in the economy, then we must strengthen the foundations of our democratic system with political and
electoral reforms. We must not allow a return to the manual system of elections that will represent a step backward in our efforts to promote participatory democracy and an inclusive economy. We must protect the sanctity of our electoral process.
The proposal of some quarters, including the camp of losing vice-presidential candidate Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., for us to go back to manual counting of votes because of claims that automated polls are just as susceptible to cheating, will erode the gains made so far in reforming our political system. It is nothing less than a frontal attack on the democratic system that we restored in 1986, and are now seeking to fortify after Filipinos ousted tyrannical rule in 1986.
A group called Democracy Watch has warned of apparent attempts to “discredit the automated elections and reverse the historic gains in our country’s democracy.”
The 2016 elections have been widely hailed by both local and foreign observers because of the speedy transmission of votes and a marked decline in election-related violence. Besides this, the group said, last year’s elections attracted a huge turnout of nearly 82 percent of the electorate, saw the biggest deployment of vote-counting machines in the world, and highlighted the poll body’s efforts to tap technical expertise, including the printing of some 40 million vote receipts and the training of more than 45,000 field technicians in less than three months, to make the political exercise reflect the mandate of the people.
In fact, the Commission on Elections transmitted 86 percent of all votes on the night of the voting, leading to the proclamation of almost all 18,000 elective positions in a short period after election day.
All of these, Democracy Watch said, were the end-result of the crucial and historic switch to automation. We agree completely.
“To govern according to the sense and agreement of the interest of the people is a great and glorious object of government. This object cannot be obtained except through the medium of popular election,” the British political theorist Edmund Burke said many years ago. It’s as relevant today as it was then.
It is true that a vibrant democracy makes for a dynamic and robust economy. By protecting our gains in restoring democracy, we lay the groundwork as well for enhancing the country’s sustained economic growth in the years ahead.
E-mail: ernhil@yahoo.com.