While local press and media are focused on local politics—“now and forever, Amen”—at least some focus is on the increasingly dangerous situation to the far north of the region on the Korean peninsula. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has carried on the family tradition but he is father Kim Jong Il and grandfather Kim Il Sung on dictatorship steroids. But without the brains of either.
All absolute rulers from ancient Rome, through Joseph Stalin and Saddam Hussein, have found it necessary to purge the ranks from time to time. Taking out a few of the bad apples on the team is a necessary part of holding on to power. Even knocking off a “good guy” or two sends an important signal to those that would challenge you for the throne.
But, eventually, you start worrying of even those that previously had no ambition or intention of making trouble. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is truly a master of the purge. Every lesser member of the dictator’s inner circle and even those just outside have a loyal following. Much better to purge all the ranks like Erdoğan did, jailing or firing thousands of journalists, police and military members, and even doctors and teachers.
But in order to keep the fear level high and show your loyalists you are worthy of their respect, you have to keep punching higher. That is what Kim Jong Un is doing by taking on both the US and China.
The problem that China is discovering with having a crazed and vicious attack dog on a leash is that sometimes they take on a mind of their own. Using North Korea to annoy the Americans has worked for decades under US presidents that were more inclined to find a way to put North Korea on the back burner than to confront the issue once and for all. US President Donald J. Trump does not seem inclined to let “Crazy Kim” continue on the same path as Kim’s Daddy and Grand Pappy.
The last thing that China needs or wants is a war of any sort on the Korean peninsula let alone a US/South Korean victory that would put US troops across the Yalu River, a stone’s throw from China proper.
However, the Trump administration has strongly indicated that it will not accept a continuation of the status quo and has called on China to fix the problem. But Kim also clearly understands that regime change in North Korea could come as easily from China as from the US. Therefore, it is unlikely that China could ever convince North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons and potential long-range ballistic missiles.
A “Mexican standoff” is a confrontation between two or more parties in which no participant can proceed or retreat without being exposed to danger. As a result, a strategic tension must be maintained until hopefully an external event of situation makes it possible to arrive at a satisfactory resolution.
As Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump meet in the US, each might express to the other a fond hope that Kim’s purge of North Korean military generals might lead to a coup. Realistically, the only event that is going to change the dangerous situation on the Korean peninsula is for Kim Jong Un to disappear and sooner, rather than later.