WE closed 2016 with glowing projections for the Philippines from multilateral agencies, like the Asian Development Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which both predicted the economy to grow by 6.8 percent.
The momentum is expected to carry over to 2017, but several risks are brewing that could hold back—if not completely throw off—the economy in its unprecedented ascent. Immediate and urgent attention must be paid to these risks if the country were to keep its current growth projections.
First, the political risks arising from the deepening and spreading opposition and criticism of the recent spate of extrajudicial killings. Over 6,000 have already been killed—these are people connected with the drug trade or not. International human-rights groups and mainstream influential international media are focusing on this singular issue.
The rising political risks are sharply placed in dramatic focus by the recent killing of South Korean businessman Jee Ick-joo inside Camp Crame—the national police headquarters—by police personnel. This story of depravity has captured the international headlines, casting a wide net of doubt over the legitimate drive against drugs and criminality.
The second risk relates to food—massive food imports are expected, which can trigger political unrest. Our food import bill is fast growing and our agricultural deficit widening. Investment in irrigation, improved seedlings and postharvest facilities have long gestation periods. Despite the diligence and enthusiasm of Agriculture Secretary Emmanuel F. Piñol, the seeds of his endeavors may not yet yield fruits during his watch. And our farmers’ morale may sink all together with the massive influx of agricultural products’ smuggling due to the opening of barter trade with Malaysia and Indonesia.
A third risk is the escalating piracy in the Sulu-Celebes Seas, already seen as the world’s newest and fastest-growing “pirate hot spot”. Filipino pirates use that busy shipping route to kidnap crew and ship for ransom, imperiling exports to and from the country and raising the cost of Philippine imports. Since March 2016, up to 16 attacks on ships have been recorded. Shipping companies have already ordered their fleets to avoid the area and ply a new route on the Pacific Ocean to the east of the Philippines.
Drastic and honest-to-goodness measures must be taken to respond to these concerns immediately. If not, they will pile on existing challenges, including the discontent of the working class over fast-eroding wages, squeezed by high income tax and high cost of living. They may also inflame the simmering hurt of the Catholic Church over the insults it has been receiving; and feed the slowly building-up opposition and criticisms by influential foreign media over the disregard of long-held norms and standards of rule of law and transparency.
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