The hard part was supposed to be over. After a half century of war, and after four years of grinding negotiations, the Colombian government and leaders of the country’s insurgency reached an accord in August to end a conflict in which more than 220,000 people were killed and 6 million displaced. The world watched September 26 as President Juan Manuel Santos and Rodrigo Londono, leader of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), signed the agreement, hailed as a blueprint for resolving war through dialogue and compromise.
On Sunday Colombia tackled one final task—voter approval through a referendum.
Polls had the “yes” vote comfortably ahead by a 2-to-1 ratio. Instead, the referendum narrowly failed. The conflict continues, a fault line in the country has emerged, and Santos faces a problem without a Plan B.
Early in negotiations, Santos gambled. Deciding that the peace deal’s legitimacy would be strengthened if it won backing through the ballot box, he had legislation passed that required a pact with FARC to be approved through a national referendum.
He learned the hard way the lesson David Cameron learned on June 23, when the then-British prime minister’s big gamble to put Brexit to a referendum backfired and British voters stunned the world by deciding to leave the European Union. Cameron didn’t have to put the Brexit question on the ballot, and neither did Santos. In both cases, too much was at stake to risk rejection by voters.
At the accord’s core was the recognition that peace in guerrilla wars is possible through reintegration of rebel forces. Rebels would have turned over their weapons to United Nations teams over the next six months. In return, the FARC would become a political party, and would get 10 seats in Congress. Rank-and-file fighters would be given amnesty. FARC leaders would face tribunals, and if they confessed their crimes and paid reparations to victims, they could avoid prison time. That proved to be too big of a giveaway for many Colombians who had been victimized in some way by FARC violence—and believed rebels should be imprisoned for their deeds.
Renegotiation now appears to be Santos’s only option, but his chances for success are bleak. Rebels aren’t likely to accept any provision that involves prison time. Spearheading the “no” vote in Colombia was former President and current Sen. Alvaro Uribe, whose father was killed by FARC rebels. Uribe led the country when Colombian forces, with a helping hand from the US, drove rebels out of urban areas and back toward the jungles’ outskirts. Santos was Uribe’s defense minister back then, but now the two are political archrivals. Uribe insists on prison time for FARC commanders, and opposes the group’s inclusion into politics.
Nevertheless, it’s up to Santos to work with Uribe and craft a revamped accord palatable to the FARC and Uribe’s legions who demand more concessions from the rebels. It’s not just Santos’s political future that’s at stake. Colombia has emerged from the conflict as one of South America’s brightest lights. It has thrived as a stable democracy amid neighbors governed by leftist leaders. Tourism is on the rise, and it’s one of Latin America’s foreign investment leaders. The last thing that Colombia needs is the yoke of a war it was so close to ending. TNS Editorial
