THE global credit-rating firm Standard and Poor’s has raised its growth forecast for the Philippines this year on the basis of persistent expansion measured as the GDP no matter certain risks hounding the global economy.
In its most recent assessment, S&P looked to the Philippines growing by 6.1 percent, slightly up from only 6 percent forecast in April.
The forecast represented an acceleration from local output growth averaging only 5.9 percent in 2015. The number falls within the recently recalibrated macroeconomic targets bared by the Cabinet economic cluster under President Duterte.
“Growth in the four big Southeast Asian economies appears to have bottomed out as calmer financial markets brought about more confidence and capital inflows. The Philippines continues to be the outperformer with its growing middle class and business process outsourcing boom,” the credit watcher said.
For next year, S&P’s baseline projection for Philippine growth averages 6.3 percent and for 2018 only 6.2 percent. These are growth numbers lower than that set by
the government.
On Tuesday the economic managers announced revised GDP targets ranging from 6 percent to 7 percent this year, 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent for next year and 7 percent to 8 percent for the rest of President Duterte’s term.
S&P also projects inflation to rise gradually over the next three years, averaging 2.3 percent this year, 3.3 percent next year and 3.6 percent in 2018. The numbers are all within the central bank’s inflation target range of 2 percent to 4 percent.
At present, inflation averaged 1.3 percent in the first half—still lower than target no matter that inflation hit a 14-month high in June. The local currency, meanwhile, was seen averaging P46.9 per dollar this year or close to the current level of exchange as of latest trading.