The local economy likely grew to a more accelerated pace in the second quarter of the year, but not enough to reach the 6-percent territory during the period, an international bank said.
Singapore-based DBS Bank economist Gundy Cahyadi said the Philippine economy may have likely grown by 5.7 percent in April to June this year.
In this scenario, the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) will have accelerated its pace from the disappointing 5.2-percent growth in the first quarter.
The first quarter print—which was largely dragged by weak public spending and sluggish export growth—disappointed market expectations. “For the most part, the only disappointing number that we have seen in the second quarter is pretty much export growth,” Cahyadi said.
“We had always expected export growth to moderate quite markedly, compared to the previous two years, but the pace of moderation seen in first half of 2015 is slightly faster than our earlier forecast,” he added.
Public spending remains crucial to the country’s growth, the economist also said.
“…It will be interesting to see how fiscal spending has fared in the second quarter of 2015. As discussed previously, we think that fiscal spending is the key to GDP growth hitting 6 percent this year,” the economist said, adding that their GDP growth forecast for the whole year is at 6 percent.
This is a whole percentage point short of the government’s annual target of 7 percent to 8 percent.
The Philippine Statistics Authority will be releasing the second quarter numbers at the end of this month.
The DBS also forecasted growth to hit 6.2 percent in 2016. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas earlier said that growth likely increased “slightly” in the second quarter.