IT’S probably understandable that the Philippines has the highest favorable view of the United States in the world. Last year a global survey conducted by Pew Research showed that 85 percent of Filipinos like the US, compared with only 69 percent of Japanese and 66 percent of Australians.
When asked how much does the US considers the Philippines’s interests, Filipinos responded “great deal/ fair amount” 85 percent of the time, much higher than Japan’s 38 percent and Australia’s 28 percent.
With so many Filipinos in America and the long history that country shares with the Philippines, these numbers are not surprising. But what is surprising is how often there seems to be a lack of knowledge about the US economic situation.
For many Filipinos, and not just in the lower socioeconomic groups, the US is still the shining economic city on the hill.
Perhaps, it has to do with the fact that many Filipinos working in the US on a temporary basis are in industries like health care and education, which have not borne the brunt of the economic problems of the last few years. But in conversations with many people, there is a disconnect between perception and reality.
US economist Arthur Okun created what he called the “Misery Index” by adding the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, assuming that these two factors create the most economic misery for the average person.
Another economist, Steve H. Hanke, expanded this index to include interest rates and plugged in year-on-year economic growth. He then applied his index globally. In 2013 Hanke’s enhanced misery index showed that Venezuela had the worst score—79.4—with consumer prices contributing the most pain. Indonesia—which was ranked 30th—had a score of 21.6, with high interest rates named as the major contributing factor.
The Philippines ranked 67th with a score of 11.7, and our biggest problem is unemployment. The US was ranked slightly better—71st—and earned a score of 11; unemployment is also the problem in that country.
So, if that is the case, if the fundamental economic numbers are about the same between the Philippines and the US, then what is the problem in believing that all is well in America?
The period that saw the largest surge in the number of Filipino immigrants to the US began when many people lost hope in the Philippines’s future. By almost all economic indicators, it was about in 1980 when the numbers started turning sour, and accelerated after the assassination of former Sen. Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr.
But the negative economic trend forecasting a dimmer future was already clear before August 21, 1983.
It is not so much where a nation and its economy are, but where they are headed; and the US is not headed to better times, like we have always expected it to be. That is what most Filipinos do not realize.
For example, in 2008 the US average hourly income was growing at 3.5 percent a year. Now it is declining at the rate of 0.05 percent. Further, the US economy is not creating quality jobs. In October one in five of all new jobs was as a bartender or food server. In 1990 there were 6 million waiters and bartenders, and 18 million jobs in manufacturing. Today food-service jobs have increased to 10 million, and manufacturing jobs have decreased to 12 million.
We know exactly what that means, as the Philippines had experienced low-wage, low-quality job creation for decades. It’s only in the last few years that the country has started to overcome the problem that the US is becoming more entangled in.
As a nation’s economy declines, you find some weird statistics. In 2007 the average 25-year-old spent 9.2-percent more time each day at work or in a work-related activity than in 2013. Now that same person is spending 10-percent more time sleeping than in 2007.
The Wall Street Journal put it this way: “Americans slept more and worked less last year, reflecting an economy that remains groggy.”
The future also dims when you consider that, in 1980, 80 percent of all 18- to 24-year-old men had a job of some kind. That percentage dropped to 64 percent in 2013. If those in this age group are out of work, how can they buy a house, raise families and build an economy five to 10 years from now?
As the lights grow dimmer on the US economy, the advantages brighten in the Philippines.
E-mail me at mangun@gmail.com. Visit my website at www.mangunonmarkets.com. Follow me on Twitter at @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by the COL Financial Group Inc.