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WEEK AHEAD: October 5, 2014

Foreign exchange

Previous week: The local currency rallied in the first days of the week, but showed relative calm toward the end of the week. The peso peaked at a six-month high on Monday at 44.995 against the dollar, but quickly recovered to 44.875 on Tuesday. The peso then slumped back to 44.9 to a dollar on Wednesday, and then sustained a two-day recovery to 44.81 on Thursday and to 44.75 at the last trading day of the week. The total traded volume during the week was lower at $3.635 billion from the previous week’s $4.036 billion.

Week ahead: Bank economists said the market will continue to focus on data releases toward the next week, and thus will retain bias on the US dollar. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) officials said they will retain presence in the foreign-exchange market to smoothen out excess volatilities.

Inflation (September 2014)

Tuesday, October 7

August inflation: The country’s inflation rate hit 4.9 percent in August, unchanged from the 4.9 percent in July. This brought the country’s eight-month inflation average at 4.4 percent.

September inflation: BSP Governor Amando M. Tetangco Jr. earlier said inflation may have slowed down to reach 4.1 percent to 4.9 percent in September due to lower prices of food and oil. Economists were also of the view that inflation for September will go down due partly to favorable base effects (see related story).

Production index (August 2014)

Friday, October 10

July manufacturing: The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported last month that the country opened the second half of the year with a 9.6-percent growth in the volume of production index, slower from the 13.3 percent in the previous month. The rise in manufacturing production was attributed to the improved production of printing, fabricated metal products, leather, beverage and machinery.

August manufacturing: In the latest Business Expectation Survey, firms in the country see increase in orders of products toward the end of the year, leading to higher volume of production. Likewise, the central bank said demand indicators point to robust real sector activity and other indices pointing to continuous production.

Exports (August 2014)

Friday, October 10

July exports: The PSA reported that the value of exports grew by 12.4 percent in July, posting the second highest exports among major economies in the East and Southeast Asia, next only to China during the year.

August exports: Earlier this year, officials were of the view that the continued recovery of the global economy, particularly in advanced markets, will support the country’s trade numbers due to the heightened demand for products. Firms surveyed by the BSP also said that garments and metals will pull exports upward toward the end of the year. 

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