GONE too soon.

The power supply in the Luzon grid is again in a precarious state, contrary to claims of the Department of Energy (DOE) that power supply is more than enough to provide electricity to households up to June.

Two-hour rotating brownouts were announced on Monday as National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) reported that the Luzon grid has registered a power-supply deficiency of 302 megaWatts (mW) owing to the boiler breakdown of the 647-mW unit of the 1,000-mW Sual-1 coal-fired power plant operated by TeaM Energy Philippines Corp.; and the 315-mW unit of the 600-mW Masinloc coal-fired power plant operated by AES Corp.

NGCP added that the available generating capacity in Luzon stood at 6,177 mW while peak demand was estimated to reach 6,479 mW.

In Visayas and Mindanao, NGCP said the supply deficiency was registered at zero and 390 mW, respectively.

NGCP added that the available generating capacity in Visayas and Mindanao stood at 1,178 mW and 820 mW, respectively, versus a peak load estimated to reach 1,178 mW and 1,210 mW, respectively.

Lake Lanao ‘critical’

Meanwhile, water at the vital Lake Lanao subsided past the critical level of 699.15 meters above sea level (masl), further cutting capacity of the six power plants along the entire stretch of its tributary in the Agus River in Lanao del Sur.

The latest NGCP advisory said the water elevation at the country’s second largest lake as of 6 a.m. Sunday was recorded at 699.08 masl.

The critical level was pegged at 699.15 masl, the level at which the National Power Corp. was prohibited from further tapping its water, in order to allow the lake to continue draining the waters to the Agus River.

The further dip in the water level dropped the capacity of the Agus plants to their lowest so far, by 80 percent of their combined dependable capacities of 608.3 mW. The power generation of the Agus plants constitute the bulk, at nearly 50 percent, of the hydroelectric power in the Mindanao grid.

The other major hydroelectric source of the grid is the Pulangi IV in Pulangi River in Maramag, Bukidnon, which also saw its water level ebb further, threatening its capacity of 255 mW. The latest NGCP estimate said the Pulangi IV plant has been reduced by 90 percent.

Luzon solutions rushed

NGCP said First Gas Power Corp.’s Sta. Rita plant is expected to be online and synchronized to the Luzon grid by Monday night. This could give an additional 130-mW to the available capacities in the grid.

TeaM Energy officials said they are exerting all efforts and working overtime to have the Sual power plant online at the soonest time possible.

NGCP said the Sual-1 may be back online tentatively on Tuesday morning (March 2).

NGCP said the Masinloc 1 still remains unavailable.

Apart from Sual and Masinloc, the Kalayaan 3 plant is at present under maintenance. The 1,200-mW Ilijan natural gas-fired power plant was also shut down, owing to the maintenance shutdown of the Malampaya gas-to-power project pipeline on February 10 and expected to be done by March 10, 2010.

NGCP said the Mindanao grid still has a generation deficiency of up to 390 mW, mainly due to the reduced capacities of the National Power Corp.’s hydropower plants.

NGCP added that the Agus plants have a total available capacity of 145 mW out of the total rated capacity of 727 mW, while the Pulangi plant is running at 20 mW out of the total rated capacity of 255 mW.

NGCP operates the power system or grid in accordance with the Philippine Grid Code, and is also the only utility responsible for transmitting high-voltage power from generators to distributors.

It does not own or operate and maintain any power generation and distribution facilities.

The continuous drop in water levels in Mindanao-based hydroelectric power plants had prompted Energy Secretary Angelo Reyes to recommend to President Arroyo on Sunday the declaration of a “power crisis” situation in the island-region.

The situation, according to Reyes, has continued to worsen as a result of reduced capability by hydroelectric power plants Agus and Pulangui plants by 80 percent and 90 percent, respectively, due to very low water inflow to the reservoir and nonavailability of the 35-mW Iligan diesel power plant.

Reyes said Mindanao, which relies heavily on hydroelectric power generation, is currently experiencing reduced energy generation from hydroelectric plants—with their historical 53-percent share of total energy generation in the region having been reduced to 26 percent last week; and further down to 20 percent at the weekend.

Reyes said he asked President Arroyo to invoke Section 71, or the Electric Power Crisis provision of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (Epira) of 2001. Such provides that “upon the determination by the President of an imminent shortage of the supply of electricity, Congress may authorize, through joint resolution, the establishment of additional generating capacity under such terms and conditions as it may approve.”

Reyes’s recommendation is the result of the Power Stakeholders’ Forum the Department of Energy (DOE) held in key cities in Mindanao and attended by DOE-attached and -supervised agencies, local governments, business groups and electric-power industry participants, such as power generators and electric distribution utilities.

Walter Brown, NGCP president, said the system demand in the Mindanao grid is anticipated to reach 1,221 mW this week, while the system reserve is expected to be negative.

On Saturday he added that the hydroelectric power plants’ capacity dropped to 215 mW from 982 mW, triggering power outages of from one to seven hours in Davao City, Iligan City, Cagayan de Oro, General Santos City and Zamboanga.

In the Visayas, barring force majeure and other developments such as fuel supply constraints and the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, the Visayas grid will not have any supply problem from March this year up to 2014, the NGCP said.