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Bam Aquino lone LP in Top 12; Binay No. 5

AFTER lingering outside of the Top 12 in the past three StratPOLLS Tracking Polls, Bam Aquino, a cousin of President Aquino, leaped from No. 19 in the December 2012 tracking poll of candidates for senator to No. 12 in the January 2013 poll.  He earned a vote-share rating of 44 percent, a precarious 1 percentage point ahead of Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, who earned 43 percent. Bam Aquino is the only member of the Liberal Party of the President who landed in the winning column.

In like manner, Rep. Nancy Binay, daughter of Vice President Jejomar Binay, leapfrogged from No. 13 to No. 5 with a vote share of 66 percent. She is running under the banner of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA),

The marked improvement registered by Bam Aquino and Nancy Binay could be credited to “visibility” where all of the candidates for Senate seats had been barnstorming cities during the past weeks in the National Capital Region (Metro Manila) as well as vote-rich provinces in Luzon and the Visayas.

 

No. 1 spot, still a toss-up

THE topmost spot is still a statistical toss-up between Senators Loren Legarda and Francis Escudero. In this track, Legarda earned 86 percent against Escudero’s 84 percent, which is a statistical tie, if the margin of error on sampling frame is considered, which is in excess of 3 percent but not more than 4 percent. The topmost position had changed hands twice already, with Legarda topping the StratPOLLS tracking surveys in October last year and again January this year while Escudero was ahead in November and December of last year.

Using the “Vote Conversion Formula,” it is estimated that to be No. 1, a candidate for senator would need between 31 million and 33 million votes, while to land No. 12, and last, one would need between 18 million and 20 million votes. These estimates are based on the January 2013 statistical results as gathered by StratPOLLS. A big slice of the vote will come from the so-called Lingayen-Lucena Corridor consisting of vote-rich Pangasinan province, Region 3, NCR and Region 4A, which make up 38 percent to 40 percent of the national total number of votes.

On third spot was Sen. Aquilino Pimentel III with 72 percent, while No. 4 was Sen. Allan Peter Cayetano with 71 percent, a mere point separating them. Nos. 5 to 12 were the following: No. 5, Binay, 66 percent; No. 6, Rep. Juan Edgardo Angara, 65 percent; Nos. 7 and 8, Rep. JV Ejercito and former Rep. Cynthia Villar, 60 percent apiece; No. 9, former Sen. Juan Miguel Zubiri, 58 percent; No. 10, Rep. Jackie Enrile, 53 percent; No. 11, Sen. Gregorio Honasan, 46 percent; and No. 12, Bam Aquino, 44 percent.

 

Trillanes, Llamanzares, Gordon and Baraquel  are battling for No. 12; Hagedorn now No. 17

WITHIN striking distance of making it to No. 12 were: No. 13 Sen. Antonio Trillanes with 43 percent (a mere point from Aquino), No. 14 Movie and Television Review and Classification Board Chairman Grace Poe-Llamanzares who is running as Independent, 41 percent, and Nos. 15 and 16 were former Sen. Richard Gordon and Activist Riza Hontiveroz-Baraquel with an identical 40 percent.

Track 4 was conducted from January 9 to 18 in the NCR using a sampling frame consisting of 300 voting respondents, which were proportionately distributed in Quezon City, Manila, Makati, Caloocan and Pasig. The respondents were drawn at random from the database of StratPOLLS made up of 3,000 pre-qualified respondents as stratified demographically. The application used was person-to-person phone interviews (land-based) similar to the prevailing method of choice in the United States and EU countries. The margin of error was in excess of 3 percent but not more than 4 percent.

This survey was commissioned by Business Mirror for the ALC media companies.


In Photo: Legarda, Binay and Aquino


 

 

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