With less than 30 days left before the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacy for next year’s national elections, the political fever has begun to heat up.

Adding to the heat were two recent critical developments—the announcement by Sen. Loren Legarda of her second bid for vice presidency and Sen. Francis Escudero’s resignation from the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC).

Coming a week after another, the twin pronouncements from two leading candidates of the NPC could be a portent of an emerging alliance between two powerful political parties. 

I look at these developments as an indication that the NPC would eventually coalesce with the administration Lakas-Kampi, which would make Legarda the running mate of Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro.

This could be the reason Legarda sort of made her options for standard-bearer “open.” And this could also be the reason for Escudero’s resignation from NPC.

We already have the tandems of Sens. Noynoy Aquino and Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party and the former President Joseph Estrada and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay of the Partido ng Masang Pilipino and PDP-Laban.

This leaves Sen. Manny Villar still without a running mate, but that may not be for long. From the way alliances are shaping up, Villar could end up with Vice President Noli de Castro as running mate.

For too long, de Castro has kept mum about his 2010 plans. Without a party to run under and with the doors of the administration practically shut on him, de Castro would be content to seek reelection. And for not throwing his hat into the presidential derby, the Vice President deserves our sincerest thanks. At least, he knows his limits.

But then, there is a wild card—former public works secretary Jun Ebdane is also being touted as a presidential candidate. By which party, it has not been officially announced. But it looks like he is being “groomed” by former President Fidel V. Ramos. No, not to be a serious candidate, but only to draw as many members of the original Lakas–Christian-Muslim Democrats as Ramos could to another option.

I am inclined to believe Ramos and former Speaker Joe de Venecia are planning to bolt from Lakas-Kampi, and bring with them as many followers as they could to the camp of Aquino and Roxas.

In all likelihood, therefore, 2010 is going to be a four-cornered battle among Teodoro and Legarda, Aquino and Roxas, Estrada and Binay, and Villar and de Castro. We could be seeing a repeat of the bitter 2004 fight between De Castro and Legarda.

But alliances could still change.

Binay, for one, may not be really serious in teaming up with Estrada. He could just be “moderating” Erap. Binay will always be for Cory, and with her only son seeking the presidency, there is no way Binay would go against him.

Binay knows only too well that, on any given day, Estrada can command 15 percent to 20 percent “loyal” votes from his followers. That is Erap’s inherent political capital. No matter what you do to Erap, those 15 percent to 20 percent of voters will still vote for him. 

So Binay could just be waiting for the right time to convince Erap to withdraw from the race and join Noynoy and Mar—and hopefully bring with them Erap’s loyal followers.

That would greatly boost the political stock of Noynoy with two former Presidents—Ramos and Estrada—backing him up.

Should this come to pass, Villar’s Nacionalista Party would have the option to join forces with the administration Lakas-Kampi-NPC. Villar would remain the standard-bearer, with Teodoro sliding down, or either de Castro or Legarda for vice president.

So next year’s presidential elections could end up a one-on-one contest between Aquino and Villar.

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The DAWN Alumni and Writers Network, the association of former editors and staff members of DAWN, the student newspaper of the University of the East, will launch tomorrow the book by former press secretary and newsman Raul S. Gonzalez. Former President Ramos is the guest of honor.

Titled My Malacañang, the book is a collection of Gonzalez’s columns in The Evening Paper, The Philippine STAR, The Evening STAR and The Daily Tribune, conceived by DAWNers as a tribute to “a man whose life’s work enlightened and entertained a broad spectrum of readers and predisposed a generation of writers who call him their mentor.”

Before Gonza, as we fondly call him, wrote for the four dailies, he was adviser to several batches of aspiring journalists at UE’s student paper, at one time Southeast Asia’s largest campus paper with a weekly circulation reaching a peak of 60,000 during the martial law years.

The book opens with a 13-part series on Gonza’s boyhood inside Malacañang, where he “lived” longer than any President, except Ferdinand Marcos. His father, an engineer, was Malacañang superintendent of buildings and grounds from 1938 until after the Second World War. It was in Malacañang, he wrote in one of his pieces for The Evening Paper in 1995, where he “took his first firm steps and uttered [his] first coherent words, rode [his] first bike, read [his] first book, stole [his] first kiss, wrote [his] first poem.”

The other essays are on his views of presidents, Philippine society, and politics, people and places.

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