Last month, Dr. Romulo Virola, secretary-general of the National Statistical Coordination Board, warned that the economy is “teetering” on the brink of recession. His statement came in the wake of paid advertisements about the peerless performance of the “cute economist.” Virola was excoriated publicly by a chorus of officials who protested that the economy was on the road to recovery, not recession.

The uproar had barely settled down when the media reported that the World Bank has projected that for the Philippines, “outright recession is anticipated this year.” The bank forecast that in 2009, the country’s gross domestic product will plummet to negative .5 percent, in contrast to 7.2 percent in 2007 and 4.6 percent in 2008. Like Shakespeare’s lady who protests too much, the President’s defenders let loose a barrage of denials. The claim that the economy will grow this year was dusted off, polished and presented once more to the skeptical public.

Virola’s observations are part of the quarterly report on the performance of the Philippine economy. The World Bank forecast is taken from its report Global Development Finance: Charting a Global Recovery, which came out this month.

Now, who has the better description of the Philippine economy: “teetering,” as described by Virola; “anticipating” outright recession, as described by the World Bank; or “recovering,” as insisted by the cute economist’s passionate defenders?

To teeter means to sway, stagger, shake, waver, reel or rock. The image that immediately comes to mind is that of a fat lady wearing absurd seven-inch stiletto heels, desperately trying to keep herself from keeling over into a yawning abyss.

“Anticipate” means to expect, foresee, look forward to and await. I keep thinking of an “infanticipating” lady. She knows a baby is coming, no ifs, ands or buts.

And what does “outright” mean? The dictionary says it means absolute, complete, total, entire, direct, clear and obvious. So there.

Words, words, words!

A student in my class protested that it does not matter whether we are teetering, anticipating or recovering. Recession or no, the fact remains that the Filipino has been suffering for a long time and his condition has not changed for the better. What is needed, he says, is a change of paradigm from preoccupation with economics to “something else.”

True, as far as the poorest of the poor are concerned, they have been suffering even at the height of our much-vaunted economic growth. Would recession matter at all to them, especially the taong grasa? Not really. They have been at the bottom of the heap for a much longer time.

However, for those just above the poverty line, the small earners like the clerks, jeepney and taxi drivers, factory workers, small vendors, and those whose earnings are barely enough for sustenance, a recession can spell doom.

A recession means loss of jobs as the economy shrinks, manufacturing companies close down and exports are reduced. For those who have jobs, it means supporting increased numbers of family members who are underemployed and unemployed. For those who are dependent on overseas Filipino workers’ remittances, the prospect of overseas unemployment is a constant nightmare.

For the government, it means reduced tax collections in an economy where tax revenue is never enough. And for those who depend on the government for essential services like health and education, their very survival is threatened.

Yes, recession will matter to those who are slightly better off than the taong grasa. It will matter to the newly poor and to the shrinking middle class. It will matter to the new underemployed and the new unemployed. It will matter to those who cannot afford to keep themselves healthy and educated.

The G-8 and the W-8

From July 8 to 10 the eight richest countries in the world will meet in Italy. These are the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Russia. On the other hand, Oxfam has organized the W-8, composed of women from eight developing countries who will spearhead the campaign to urge the G-8 to increase levels of aid for essential services, particularly health and education.

Africa will be a special focus of attention for G-8, and rightly so. However, four of the W-8 women are from Asia—the Philippines, Thailand, Bangladesh and India. They argue that even as their countries are considered middle-income, the number of poor are the highest in Asia.

On July 3, the W-8 is scheduled to go to Germany to meet with the German development minister and other leading officials. Let’s see.