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INDEPENDENT think tank Ibon Foundation Inc. sees gross
domestic product (GDP) growth hitting 5 percent this
year, slightly lower than Asian Development Bank’s
forecast of 5.5 percent.
The
government, at the start of the year, had forecast GDP
growth at nearly 7 percent.
“There
is no chance that we can attain a growth rate of 7
percent,” said Rosario Guzman, Ibon executive editor, at
the 2008 Midyear Birdtalk held Wednesday.
The
research group said the slower growth is primarily on
account of inflation, which will consequently reduce
consumer spending, with inflation being led by the usual
suspects: oil and food prices.
In 2008
local prices for unleaded gasoline increased by P15.40,
while diesel fuel, used by a majority of public
transportation vehicles, increased by P15.85.
While
acknowledging the volatile oil markets, Guzman also
blamed the current administration and large oil
companies which do not “practice corporate
responsibility” in terms of pricing. She cited the 1998
Oil Deregulation Act as a reason for escalating oil
prices, and still stands by an Ibon proposal in 2001 for
centralized procurement, which states that the local
government imports oil directly from suppliers.
The
weakening of the US dollar and Middle East tensions in
Iran recently drove crude prices to $147 dollar, edging
closer to the $150 psychological barrier.
She
said, however, that Ibon does not see oil reaching $200
a barrel in the near term, as some experts have
suggested, citing stable supplies. However, she warned
that November and December will be the months to watch
out for as production is said to “get tight.”
For food
prices, Ibon is optimistic that the worst might be over,
at least in terms of rice prices.
“Prices
will be stable, because of the exposure of overpricing
and supply worries laid to rest, but don’t expect a
rollback,” she said, adding that the current price is
what the “investors wanted anyway.”
She
warned that consumers should watch out for pork prices,
which have been “quietly increasing.” Pork prices have
increased by P30 since the start of 2008.
The
Birdtalk is a semiannual assessment on trends organized
by Ibon while monitoring the country’s economic and
political indicators, as well as an analysis from the
people’s point of view. |
