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WHEN the
President presents her State of the Nation Address (Sona)
before the joint session of Congress and the people a
few weeks from now, I sense a dilemma confronting the
Chief Executive in the light of our current situation.
Politicians in the past like to downplay the setbacks
and the gloomy part of the country’s state of affairs,
especially the economy. But today, the advances in
communications have made the people fully aware of
what’s really happening in the country and in the world.
So, to give a picture that contradicts the reality would
be nothing but an exercise in futility.
Thus,
projecting a country that is not affected by the US
recession or the global slowdown will make it difficult
for the government to rally all sectors of society to
make some sacrifices, such as facing higher prices, to
keep the nation moving.
On the
other hand, sounding an alarm may likely cause our
people to panic and, consequently, worsen what’s already
a serious situation. We had seen how reports on rice
shortage led to panic buying.
I think
the Sona should paint a more realistic picture,
including the problems that the country is facing. But
it’s equally important, if not more important, to
mention our advantages and our strengths to deliver the
message that, yes, we have problems, but we can handle
them.
I very
often say the Philippines is a lot stronger now than
when it faced one crisis after another in the past,
including the oil shocks in the early ’70s and ’80s, the
debt crisis in the early ’80s and the Asian financial
crisis in the late ’90s.
Today,
we are still standing despite our weaknesses in those
dark days in the past.
There’s
no reason we would not survive the current energy and
commodity crises. Our economic fundamentals are much
stronger now than 10 years ago.
Foremost
among our strengths, as far as coping with external
developments is concerned, is the remittances from
overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) and immigrants.
Contrary
to expectations, remittances continue to increase,
reaching $5.4 billion in January-April 2008, up by 14.5
percent from the same period in 2007. In April alone,
our remittances coursed through banks posted a
double-digit growth (18.4 percent) to $1.4 billion.
Economic
analysts were predicting a slowdown in deployment of
OFWs because of the economic slowdown in other
countries. Instead, preliminary figures from the
Philippine Overseas Employment Administration showed
that for the first four months of 2008, the number of
deployed Filipino workers grew by 14 percent from
350,520 to 399,638, reflecting the preference by host
countries for Filipino manpower. Prospects for
employment opportunities are bright in labor-importing
countries like Canada.
In a
recent survey conducted by the Human Resources
Development Service of Korea, the Philippines was voted
as the Best Practice Country for Korea’s Employment
Permit System because of the country’s shortest period
in processing requirements for deployment of workers to
Korea.
Based on
the amount of remittances for the first four months,
we’re on track to hit the $16-billion mark this year,
compared with $14 billion last year.
Remittances are driving the services sector, which is
why we continue to see malls being built in many parts
of the country and telecom companies continue to expand
their markets, in the process sustaining a multiplier
effect on other businesses.
And
remittances, coupled with the housing backlog, also
continue to fuel the property boom that started in 2004.
Major property developers enjoy brisk demand not only
from overseas Filipinos and their families, but also
from the business-process outsourcing industry.
The high
cost of commodities brought us problems with respect to
oil, rice and wheat, but it also benefited the mining
sector. Foreign capital continues to come in as
investors try to cash in on the high prices for nickel,
gold, copper and other minerals, which remain largely
untapped in the Philippines.
In the
oil sector, high prices are causing the revival of
capital-intensive exploration activities. Galoc is now
flowing oil, and Nido earlier announced exploration
results that indicate large oil reserves beneath
Philippine waters.
In
fairness to the government, it has so far been prudent,
except for some problems with respect to subsidies,
which I discussed in an earlier column. Generally,
creditors are still confident with us, and that’s
another plus factor.
True, we
are facing an inflation problem, but the Bangko Sentral
ng Pilipinas and its policymaking body, the Monetary
Board, have been vigilant about it, and I am confident
we will not have runaway inflation.
So far,
we’re still growing. We may not be able to duplicate the
7.3-percent growth in gross domestic product in 2007,
which was a surprise, but even the most pessimistic
analyst is not predicting a contraction in 2008. The
United States is going through a recession and other
developed countries are barely growing; compared with
them, our economy remains strong.
That, I
believe, should be the theme of this year’s Sona—realistic,
accurate, inspiring and positive!
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