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EXPECT
to have your worst feelings on prices confirmed next
month when the June inflation data is released by the
National Economic and Development Authority (Neda),
which said it may well be around 10 percent.
Neda
Acting Director General Augusto Santos announced Monday
his agency expects a double-digit figure, and that they
expect this trend to last until the last quarter.
He added
the better news is that inflation will continue tapering
off from the end of the year well into the next year.
“We may hit double-digit in June, around 10 percent.
This is mainly because of rising oil prices. [But we
expect this to] taper off in 2009. We will also see some
tapering off toward the end of the year.”
Santos
said that while the country registered a 5.6-percent
year-to-date inflation rate in the first quarter, this
is still comparable with and is lower than other
Southeast Asian countries—Malaysia had 2.5 percent;
Indonesia, 7.6 percent; Thailand, 4.99 percent;
Singapore, 6.59 percent; India, 13 percent; Korea, 3.7
percent; China, 5.16 percent, and Vietnam, 16.4 percent.
Santos
anticipated that in the coming months the double-digit
rate would probably slow down car sales especially the
gas-thirsty sport utility vehicles (SUVs).
This in
turn will redound to the health of motorcycle sales that
he expects to pick up. “Car sales may go down. The
market is reacting structurally and more people now
prefer motorcycles.”
Earlier,
Nielsen-Philippines managing director Benedicto Cid Jr.
had said the real estate and auto industries may be in
trouble from the rising inflation, and that if consumer
spending continues to weaken, many more members of the
middle and upper classes will shy away from big-ticket
items like houses and cars.
Those
who participated in the biannual consumer confidence
survey of the company, Cid said, may not yet be affected
by high oil and food prices, but their access to
information about high inflation, the United States
recession, and the global economic slowdown may
contribute to their perception that times are hard and
there is a need to slow down in their spending.
“Philippine Consumer Confidence remains above the global
average but like most countries, it dropped
significantly by 9 points to 99. (This is) driven by
less optimism about job prospects, personal finances,
and spending—across the board,” said Cid.
The
survey was conducted over the Internet with 28,253
consumers interviewed in 51 markets all over the world
from April 21 to May 6. In the Philippines, there were
around 523 respondents, most between 18 to 30 years old
from the upper or middle class, which compose around 20
percent of the population and roughly 80 percent of the
money in the Philippines. |
