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Just
last month, a Los Angeles Times story by Bruce Wallace
somewhat lent perspective on what can be expected from
the Arroyo administration in the months to come:
For
President Arroyo, the prospect of a presidency
undermined by soaring food prices has haunting personal
overtones. She was a teenager when her father,
then-President Diosdado Macapagal, was defeated in his
1965 reelection bid, succumbing to social unrest caused
by rice shortages that he proved powerless to control.
The
dynamic of that election certainly was seared into the
consciousness of the candidate who defeated Macapagal:
Ferdinand Marcos.
“Marcos
was more afraid of a rice crisis than of the communist
insurgency, and back then, that was saying something,”
said Francisco Tatad, who was Marcos’s information
minister for more than 10 years during which the
Philippines produced enough rice to be an exporter for
all but a short time.
“After
that election, Marcos made sure that supply was there,”
Tatad said. “He never took a chance with rice.”
That was
1965, more than four decades ago, and in the case of the
country’s second Macapagal president, for sure, all
means will be considered if only to prevent political
history from repeating itself. Obviously, Mrs. Arroyo is
not seeking reelection (or is she?). But her legacy
after 2010 will be remembered by people relative to how
her administration now deals with the surge in commodity
prices—regardless of what she has accomplished so far on
the fiscal and economic fronts.
The
economy’s continued success in the years to come, if not
national survival itself, now depends largely on her
administration’s effective management of inflation. It
is easy enough for the public to forget which
administration is to be credited for economic growth,
but people will always remember the government that made
them feel poor and left them wanting.
To date,
measures undertaken to give people respite from high
fuel, power and food prices are seemingly all
short-term, with no clear indications of how the
government intends to keep basic commodities and the
general cost of living affordable in the long term. Food
lines are now becoming more common as people wait for
hours to purchase cheap staple from government-run
outlets. Ironic, really, for what the government claims
to be a healthy economy.
A recent
news report by the Agence France Presse noted how
skyrocketing prices of food and fuel have already
claimed political casualties in Malaysia and Pakistan.
Malaysia’s ruling coalition suffered its worst electoral
setback in half a century in March, as voters reportedly
registered their fury over the government’s inability to
rein in the rising cost of living. And in Pakistan,
President Pervez Musharraf’s party was trounced in the
February elections as high food prices and shortages of
flour and oil were seen as more influential than the
nation’s political traumas.
And as
world oil prices continue to rise, social unrest,
likewise, festers. The AFP reported that new fuel-price
rises also triggered protests and strikes in Malaysia
and India in recent days, and Indonesia has seen a
series of demonstrations in several cities. “In any
country that has elections coming up within the next two
years, inflation and how the government wrestles with
the problem will be important,” the wire agency quoted
Robert Broadfoot of the Political and Economic Risk
Consultancy. “So, therefore, we’re talking about India,
the situation in Malaysia is still not finished yet, in
Indonesia you’ve got elections next year and the
Philippines in 2010,” said the Hong Kong-based analyst.
In place
of short-term measures to relieve consumers, perhaps the
government should now consider painful but necessary
reforms for long-term gain. But even this poses
tremendous political risk. Reeling from allegations of
wide-scale corruption and poor political governance, the
Arroyo administration now seemingly lacks the moral
authority and stature to exact additional sacrifice from
the public. In many cases, government intervention is
tolerated with a large degree of mistrust that
pencil-pushing officials are just out to further milk
state coffers.
It
remains uncertain, however, if people can wait until
2010 to exact revenge on an allegedly corrupt and inept
political leadership. It’s important that concrete and
effective action is urgently taken to deal with surging
prices, particularly of food, power and transportation.
The tired and hungry are becoming less tolerant of
politics.
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