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So how
come nobody’s talking at all now about the “7-8-9”
formula much hyped in the media by one of the country’s
economic managers during the campaign period?
“7-8-9”
refers to the projected 7 percent growth rate of the
economy in 2007, 8 percent next year and 9 percent in
2009.
Well, it
had a nice ring to it, that’s for sure, since the
economy grew by only 5.4 percent or thereabouts in 2006.
But it would seem that “7-8-9” was nothing more than
propaganda, intended to entice people into casting their
votes for the administration ticket in the May 14
midterm elections.
Take it
from Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Romulo Neri, also
the concurrent Director General of the National Economic
Development Authority (Neda), who’s now citing figures
quite far from the ambitious growth targets announced by
the government with the appropriate hoopla and
drumbeating months back.
Secretary Neri is now saying it would be difficult for
the country to achieve a 6.2-percent economic growth
next year unless the government spends P20 billion more
in pump priming. This year, the growth rate is pegged at
a rather modest 6.1 percent.
Neri
said it is “theoretically possible” to jack up growth
rates, even hit the 7-8-9 goal eyed by then Presidential
Management Staff chief and now newly elected Albay
governor Joey Salceda for 2007 to 2009, if only the
government would spend its budget on time.
But the
scaled-down target is not surprising given the revenue
shortfall in the past months and the government’s
commitment to achieve a balanced budget by next year,
according to Neri. Thus, the administration would find
it difficult to get the additional funds for
pump-priming the economy.
“If we
didn’t have the revenue constraint, it would have been
easier to achieve a 6.2-percent growth. For the 0.3
percent [additional growth], you only need about P20
billion in additional spending,” he said.
In fact,
Neri says, Neda has proposed to the interagency
Development Budget Coordination Committee an economic
growth target of only 5.9 percent for 2008.
Finance
Secretary Margarito Teves is said to have questioned the
lower GDP growth target for 2008 since this would mean a
slowdown from the 2007 expansion goal. But the
lower-than-expected 2008 growth rate is just right, Neri
adds, since the factors which would account for the
6.1-percent growth this year, such as good weather,
election spending and “greater leeway in budgetary
spending,” would not be there next year.
In other
words, we’re looking at “6-6-6” rather than “7-8-9,”
something that the Arroyo administration won’t really be
happy about, given its election pitch that a vote for
Team Unity would sustain the momentum of growth.
Turns
out that the “7-8-9” line falls flat on its face for
being too unrealistic, full of sound and fury but
signifying nothing.
We ought
to examine the “6-6-6” target more closely to find out
if even that jibes with the reality on the ground. It
certainly wouldn’t hurt to see whether the devil is in
the details.
The
economy’s expected growth rates in the next several
years are important for us to know because this will
tell us if the government can make a substantial impact
on poverty reduction in the foreseeable future.
Increased growth rates translate to better capacity by
the government to attack poverty and improve people’s
lives. We need less theoretical possibilities and more
concrete and realizable figures—double-digit, if
possible—to rid the country of the blight of poverty and
squalor.
Now that
the elections are over and the administration no longer
has to pull rabbits out of hats to impress voters, it’s
time to buckle down to work and give our people the
better future they deserve. |
