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Sitting
in heavy traffic in
Manila
recently, I read a front-page newspaper item about the
Philippine economy. The headline: “Fastest growth in 31
years.”
As I
pondered this great news—How will investors react? Is a
credit-rating upgrade afoot? What about bond yields?—I
was distracted by many children selling chewing gum and
trinkets on a school day as they walked between
smoke-spewing cars.
It’s but
one of the more visible reminders that the best economic
news in decades—or rapid growth during Gloria Arroyo’s
seven years as president—still isn’t reaching those who
need it most. Impediments include rampant corruption, a
lack of economic efficiency and dodgy infrastructure.
Turning
back to my newspaper, I noticed another front-page
article that may have said even more about why more than
half the nation’s 91 million people live on less than $2
a day. It told of women from three
Manila slum communities asking the courts to grant them access to
contraceptives in public clinics.
In 2000,
Manila City Mayor Jose Atienza banned all “artificial”
birth control, including condoms, at city health centers
and ordered that only so-called natural methods be
taught. Atienza’s successor, Alfredo Lim, hasn’t
repealed the order.
Thanks
to such policies, Asia’s 14th-biggest economy is
producing more people than well-paid jobs. Rapid
population growth is something Japan or Germany can only
dream of. It’s a benefit if employment is created to
utilize a growing work force. Arroyo’s failure to do
that explains why at least 10 percent of Filipinos work
overseas. The government has become addicted to the
remittances they send home.
‘Third-rail’ issue
The
problem is that this is a “third-rail” issue. The
Catholic Church muzzles any serious discussion of
population control in the predominantly Roman Catholic
nation.
The
point here isn’t to dismiss the beliefs of Catholics.
Rather, it’s that the separation of Church and
State—which the country’s Constitution decrees—should
allow leaders to pursue sound economic policies that
spread prosperity. The Philippine government’s
reluctance to think for itself is holding back one of
Asia’s most promising economies.
In most
democracies, the views of the Church get little
traction. The institution has huge influence in a nation
where about 85 percent of the population is Catholic.
The Church played a key role in the ouster of Ferdinand
Marcos in 1986 and Joseph Estrada in 2001. To understand
how powerful it is in Manila, consider the events of
July 2005.
Church
and State
Arroyo,
who took power in January 2001 after popular uprisings
removed Estrada, was under pressure to step down. Coup
rumors swirled around the capital. On July 10, 2005, I
was among a swarm of journalists on hand to hear whether
the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the
Philippines
would back Arroyo.
They
did. And so, Arroyo owes her ability to lead to the
bishops who refused to demand her resignation. The last
thing she can do is cross the Church, which helps
explain why the issue of population control isn’t
mentioned in the halls of power.
Ask a
government official or corporate executive about the
issue and they will look around to see who is listening
before giving you an answer. Mention it to an
aid-organization official and the first words out of
their mouth are: “You can’t quote me on this, but. . .
.”
The
plight of the
Philippines
runs counter to the views of economists such as William
Easterly who call population control the “elixir” that
helps poor countries become rich.
Seven
inches
“The
most unprepossessing candidate for the Holy Grail of
prosperity is seven inches of latex: a condom,”
Easterly, a former World Bank official, wrote in his
2002 book The Elusive Quest for Growth.
The
Philippine population will increase at a rate of 200
babies each hour this year, according to the National
Statistical Coordination Board. Romulo Virola, the
board’s secretary-general, offers three reasons for such
rapid growth: limited access to modern family-planning
methods; children’s role in family businesses; and
guidance from the Church.
One
could argue the
Philippines
may be set for a demographic dividend. According to
Bloomberg data, 35 percent of Filipinos are younger than
15. Contrast that with aging Japan, where just 14
percent are in that age group. Demographically, the
Philippines would have more in common with India than
China.
Swelling
ranks of young workers are only a plus when an economy
utilizes them. While industries such as outsourcing,
tourism and mining may provide more jobs, the
Philippines should be doing more to create
opportunities. Sadly, its strategy seems to be shipping
an ever-growing number of workers overseas.
It’s an
unsustainable policy. Exporting so many workers will, at
some point, hurt the economy. It also takes pressure off
the government to do its job and clean up its act.
Again,
the point of this column isn’t to denigrate religious
beliefs. It’s that 7.3-percent growth in 2007 means
little if a nation’s ever-expanding masses aren’t
feeling it. Greater access to modern family-planning
methods, including 7 inches (17.8 centimeters) of latex,
would help stretch the benefits of economic growth. |
