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TODAY,
more than 2,000 leaders from business, politics,
academe, media and civil society will once again meet in
Davos,
Switzerland,
for their annual powwow.
Many of
us will probably dismiss it as just another junket for
those who control the levers of global power. But this
one is special and we should watch it closely.
For the
first time, these people—the elite of the elites of the
brave new global order—are going to admit officially
that indeed the world’s power relations are changing and
we are in for a more exciting and probably challenging
world.
This
year’s theme is all about “the shifting power equation”
which offers a lot of promises as well as challenges to
the global economy. Among these changes they will talk
about are the growing prominence of the emerging
economies that include China, India, and many other
fast-growing countries in the Asia-Pacific Region; the
increasing economic and political clout of producers of
commodities (e.g. oil, gas, coal, iron ore, among
others); the enhanced voice of individuals over
institutions, and the rising role of consumers over
producers. They are going to talk about new economic
drivers, the impact of technology on society and
business in a world that is increasingly so
interconnected.
We
should watch these discussions closely because somehow
the forces of change being discussed there now are fast
transforming us. If we are to take advantage of the
emerging opportunities in the brave new global order as
well as cope with its challenges, we need to understand
these processes.
Ten
years ago, electronics and semiconductors accounted for
only 42 percent of the country’s exports with farm-based
products like coconuts, pineapples, bananas, tuna,
seaweeds and baskets having significant percentages.
Today, manufactures account for 86 percent of the
country’s exports, the bulk of which are electronics and
semiconductors. Farm-based products now account for only
4 percent.
Ten
years ago, 36 percent of our exports were purchased by
the Americans, such that we would always catch cold, nay
severe influenza, when America sneezed. When combined
with our exports to
Japan,
Netherlands, Hong Kong, Great Britain and Germany, more
than 70 percent of our exports were purchased only by
seven countries. Doesn’t this look like the classic
neocolonial dependence? China and India were not even
listed among our markets.
Today,
America only accounts for 18 percent of the country’s
exports. China is now our third largest market next to
Japan.
Suddenly we can see our friends in the Asean buying
about 17 percent of our products. The rest are accounted
for by Europe and the rest of the world.
What we
see here is a diversified export market for Philippine
products, a trend that should lessen our vulnerability
to external shocks, such as a possible slowdown in the
US
economy. Uncle Sam may sneeze but we don’t have to land
in intensive care because the world seems to have
developed the capacity to adapt to the fast-changing
environment. Of course, compared to 10 years ago, the
Philippines has more growth drivers, foremost of which
are the dollar remittances, electronics, agribusiness,
mining, business and process outsourcing—all connected
to the changing dynamics of the global economy.
Of
course, there are challenges as well and the forces of
change under way are going to highlight these problems
if our leaders remain oblivious to this global
transformation. For instance, the increasing
globalization of business and economic activities
suggest that job creation would largely benefit the
highly educated and skilled ones who coincidentally
mostly belong to the higher social strata. It’s going to
accentuate the obsolescence of our education system and
heighten the frustrations of those who want to take
advantage of global economic opportunities but cannot
yet do so for lack of the right skills and capabilities.
In effect, these global forces of change could
potentially polarize society if the country’s leaders
continually forgo much-needed reforms.
Well,
this problem is already here. Notice the changes in the
urban landscape brought about by outsourcing. Certainly,
the ranks of the middle class are growing with the
mushrooming of cyberservices in our midst. Notice the
steady rise in the sales of cars and condominiums. These
changes may offhand make one feel that something good is
on the way, that there are lots of reasons to be
optimistic about the future. And yet, and yet, some
alarming signals need urgent attention and action: for
one, joblessness is not improving.
That’s
because the poor unskilled boys and girls from the slums
don’t have the Ateneo accent and the spunk—not to
mention the pricey training cost, averaging P30,000, to
get into medical transcription. Their only chance to
partake of the bounties from outsourcing would be
through selling pirated DVDs along Ayala Avenue during
night time, the earnings from which would never give
them a decent living. Worse, that high-risk job could
land them in jail.
Those
who abhor globalization per se tend to take comfort in
the fact that the Doha Round of trade negotiations is
almost dead. The truth is that what really drives
globalization are the continuing breakthroughs in
logistics and transport technologies. Globalization,
therefore, will move forward like an unstoppable force
putting greater stress on our domestic policies on
transport, communications, shipping and port operations.
We will soon realize that the continuing oligopoly in
these sectors, nurtured by the dirigiste policies of the
past, is hurting us more than benefiting the blessed
few. But reforming these sectors would also prove a
challenge especially for political leaders of this
country.
These
days, one major problem confronting the body politic is
the utter lack of legitimacy of many of our political
and social institutions. Old-style politics of patronage
and corruption partly explains this. But the greater
speed of information flows brought about by the
Information Revolution is another explanation. Unless
our political institutions undergo reforms, this rising
voice of the empowered individuals, mediated by
technology, are likely to create more schisms in the
political system.
Yes, the
agenda of reform in Davos is our agenda as well, even
though the lifestyles of the rich and powerful may seem
so far removed from our daily lives. Those who are there
are as scared as we are of not being able to ride
change. The one great leveler, therefore, is our having
greater passion in understanding—nay, anticipating—the
nature and impact of this change and transforming it to
our benefit. Sounds like a tall order but it’s the only
way to go. |
