IT is possible the Arroyo government might miss last year’s economic target, as initial figures indicate a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of as low as 5.3 percent and up to 5.6 percent, a senior planning official on Wednesday said.          

The series of typhoons which hit the country last year should weigh down overall economic performance even as hopes remain high that growth could still meet the bottom range of the official target range of 5.5-6.1 percent, according to Dennis M. Arroyo, director for national planning and policy at the National Economic and Development Authority.          

GDP growth, generated from the periodic change in final value of goods and services produced locally, is the common barometer for economic performance. Official estimates will be released by the National Statistical Coordination Board on January 31.      

“We hope for continued strength in consumption, exports and sectors like manufacturing, transport and private services… but we have to wait [for the numbers],” Arroyo said.               

Arroyo said, however, the GDP would have grown anywhere between 5.1 percent and 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter, with agriculture expanding 1.3 percent to 2.1 percent, industry from 5.5 percent to 6.4 percent and services between 6.4 percent and 7.3 percent.        

Full-year projections, meanwhile, place the farm sector to grow anywhere from 3.8 percent to 4.0 percent, industry at 5.2 percent to 5.4 percent and services from 6.0 percent to 6.3 percent.

But whatever figures the government reports, the GDP growth range projection nevertheless would be a good one, economists interviewed by BusinessMirror commented.

“It is par for the course, it is essentially good since the government has a tendency to be a bit optimistic,” Peter Lee U, economics department chairman of the University of Asia and the Pacific, said.      

Economist Victor A. Abola agreed, noting his own 5.4-percent GDP growth projection for 2006 was well within Neda’s initial estimates, although he doubted the economy would have grown as high as 5.9 percent in the last quarter.    

“Construction had picked up strongly both on the commercial and residential [segments],” he commented, to service the business process outsourcing industry which is another booming sector.            

Ernesto M. Pernia of the University of the Philippines’ School of Economics noted, meanwhile, that Neda’s initial estimates “was expected given the export sector’s contribution to overall GDP.”

Pernia explained that exports, said be among the strongest pillars of the economy, have not fully contributed to economic growth despite their double-digit growth, because of an equal increase in imports.      

“A strong export number is good if we have a trade surplus . . . yet we still have a deficit,” he added.

CONGRESS inched closer to ratifying the final version of the 2007 budget bill after the bicameral conference committee on Wednesday rendered a report endorsing that the money measure be submitted to Malacańang for signing into law by President Arroyo.

Philippine imports probably grew at a slower pace in November as global crude prices eased and purchases of electronic items weakened, economists said.

PRESIDENT Arroyo will apprise world leaders and top business executives of developments in the evolution of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) into a “formidable bloc” when she attends the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this week.

THE pace of disposal by sale of banks’ nonperforming assets is expected to quicken this year with the banks’ agreement to lower prices of foreclosed assets offered for sale.

THE Filipino consumers’ confidence level is at an all-time high with their worries over the economy, job prospects, and political stability continually easing, according to findings of global consumer research outfit ACNielsen on Wednesday.

IT is possible the Arroyo government might miss last year’s economic target, as initial figures indicate a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of as low as 5.3 percent and up to 5.6 percent, a senior planning official on Wednesday said.

WHOEVER comes out the beneficial owner or owners of 33,133,064 shares in San Miguel Corp. will no longer get a seat on the board of San Miguel.