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The
economic managers said on Friday the country’s
macroeconomic underpinnings this year should prove
significantly stronger than originally assumed, one
where local output or the gross domestic product were to
quicken to as high as 6.1 percent from the expectation
of just 5.8 percent.
This
compares with projected GDP expansion in 2006 averaging
5.5 percent.
The
Cabinet-level Development and Budget Coordinating
Council also said inflation and interest rates would
fall this year and that the 8-percent appreciation of
the peso in 2006 was to be replicated.
The
strengthening local currency averaged P52.4 per dollar
last year, but was seen to range higher this year
between P48 to P50 per dollar from the original assumed
rate of P53.5 per dollar.
“This
was based on the forecast value of the peso made by the
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas,” the Department of Finance
said after the DBCC met Friday afternoon.
Import
activities will also continue to outpace exports this
year as imports are to grow 12 percent versus export
growth of just 11 percent, the DOF said.
Export
growth last year was estimated to have grown by 7.4
percent to $44.25 billion while imports accelerated by
18.1 percent to $53.03 billion.
The DBCC
originally anticipated exports this year to expand by
only 10.4 percent while imports were to grow 11.8
percent.
From
original assumed value of $67.05 per barrel of oil this
year, the DBCC also reduced it to a range of $61 per
barrel to no more than $64 per barrel, not very far from
last year’s average of $63.42 per barrel of crude.
These
numbers mean that government, for instance, could set
aside P16 billion more money than was earlier set aside
for infrastructure projects this year, a senior finance
official said.
The
adjustments also mean an effective reduction in the
collection goal of the Bureau of Internal Revenue
originally tasked with collecting at least P784.1
billion to only P765.9 billion this year, the official
added.
The
Bureau of Customs likewise benefited, as its own goal
was reduced to P228.2 billion instead from the original
P235.1 billion original.
BIR
chief Jose Mario Buñag and customs head Napoleon Morales
were both to benefit from the easing of interest rates
this year, what with the government compulsion to borrow
having eased significantly as well, owing to the
improving macroeconomic environment, the DOF
said.
The DBCC
also assumed a budgetary shortfall of P63 billion this
year consistent with the deficit seen to equal 0.9
percent of GDP.
The
actual 11-month fiscal performance in 2006 showed the
deficit 52 percent below the projected P123 billion as
this stood at only P58.32 billion as at end-November
last year.
The DBCC
has been consistent in projecting total revenues to
equal 16.7 percent of GDP this year to P1.118 trillion;
but the tax effort was seen to deteriorate a little to
14.9 percent of GDP this year from original of 15.3
percent of GDP as a result of falling interest rates.
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