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    With better macroeconomic data,
    managers raise growth forecast
     
    By Jun Vallecera
    Reporter

    The economic managers said on Friday the country’s macroeconomic underpinnings this year should prove significantly stronger than originally assumed, one where local output or the gross domestic product were to quicken to as high as 6.1 percent from the  expectation of just 5.8 percent.              

    This compares with projected GDP expansion in 2006 averaging 5.5 percent.   

    The Cabinet-level Development and Budget Coordinating Council also said inflation and interest rates would fall this year and that the 8-percent appreciation of the peso in 2006 was to be replicated.               

    The strengthening local currency averaged P52.4 per dollar last year, but was seen to range higher this year between P48 to P50 per dollar from the original assumed rate of P53.5 per dollar.        

    “This was based on the forecast value of the peso made by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas,” the Department of Finance said after the DBCC met Friday afternoon.            

    Import activities will also continue to outpace exports this year as imports are to grow 12 percent versus export growth of just 11 percent, the DOF said.      

    Export growth last year was estimated to have grown by 7.4 percent to $44.25 billion while imports accelerated by 18.1 percent to $53.03 billion.   

    The DBCC originally anticipated exports this year to expand by only 10.4 percent while imports were to grow 11.8 percent.    

    From original assumed value of $67.05 per barrel of oil this year, the DBCC also reduced it to a range of $61 per barrel to no more than $64 per barrel, not very far from last year’s average of $63.42 per barrel of crude.

    These numbers mean that government, for instance, could set aside P16 billion more money than was earlier set aside for infrastructure projects this year, a senior finance official said.          

    The adjustments also mean an effective reduction in the collection goal of the Bureau of Internal Revenue originally tasked with collecting at least P784.1 billion to only P765.9 billion this year, the official added.               

    The Bureau of Customs likewise benefited, as its own goal was reduced to P228.2 billion instead from the original P235.1 billion original.               

    BIR chief Jose Mario Buñag and customs head Napoleon Morales were both to benefit from the easing of interest rates this year, what with the government compulsion to borrow having eased significantly as well, owing to the improving macroeconomic environment, the DOF said.             

    The DBCC also assumed a budgetary shortfall of P63 billion this year consistent with the deficit seen to equal 0.9 percent of GDP.    

    The actual 11-month fiscal performance in 2006 showed the deficit 52 percent below the projected P123 billion as this stood at only P58.32 billion as at end-November last year.              

    The DBCC has been consistent in projecting total revenues to equal 16.7 percent of GDP this year to P1.118 trillion; but the tax effort was seen to deteriorate a little to 14.9 percent of GDP this year from original of 15.3 percent of GDP as a result of falling interest rates.

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